| 00:00 | And then what I did was I to the first part, and I |
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| 00:04 | like, OK, let me start t zero, which was everything you |
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| 00:09 | throwing for us. What? It like this guy away from this arising |
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| 00:15 | . And so I started at that and I said, Okay, I'm |
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| 00:18 | . He's here, here, and said it T one C level for |
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| 00:21 | to sea level, rise to Sea level rise. But then I |
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| 00:25 | one to here to here three was , four with stables. So then |
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| 00:34 | had it was like, this low here. Yeah, and then t |
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| 00:41 | . I think that if I like, 20 m drop, so |
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| 00:44 | was like, Okay for superfecta I've three this original surface. So |
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| 00:51 | like going with you through this guy here, cars into these jokers. |
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| 00:58 | then number six was 10 m on of that. So, like number |
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| 01:03 | really threw me off. I had make all these like, weird hinge |
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| 01:05 | . So it was like number five number five point whatever. Side number |
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| 01:12 | was 10 m on top of so I threw like if sea level |
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| 01:15 | here. Five. After that. erosion 67 Saving here with this. |
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| 01:23 | right. And then number seven was m on top of that. So |
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| 01:27 | a future big transgression event. So think I drew this incorrectly. But |
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| 01:34 | . I just read this huge transgression Low, but I don't think that's |
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| 01:38 | , because it's just like it feels number six women to see little package |
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| 01:42 | I get this fake little I don't . 89 and 10 were just just |
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| 01:51 | continual, um that from caved whatever , reputation, right share now comments |
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| 02:14 | Joseph. I had pretty so I want to step five. Okay |
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| 02:21 | I had pretty high priest in What first? Anybody. Anybody get |
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| 02:28 | Sfar? Joseph? Yeah, I did all the big drawing on. |
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| 02:34 | got very similar to Josephs. Your it was really was really like to |
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| 02:52 | degree Yesterday when I went back and this last night, I was like |
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| 02:55 | made some sense. That's the right? So So one thing I |
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| 02:59 | tell you, Joseph is step If I remember, supply drops |
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| 03:05 | So you probably wanted back step that a little bit more. Okay, |
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| 03:14 | what I like about embers down is he's he's, uh, done that |
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| 03:20 | steps. Go ahead. Do you ? This is from 1 to |
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| 03:24 | And you see the AP progress then the drop off? Yeah, |
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| 03:33 | then this is having the steps from to 10? I think so. |
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| 03:39 | . Yeah, yeah. You got big back steps there, which looks |
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| 03:47 | . Yeah, because because the um implied floor right 11 thing that |
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| 03:56 | one concern I have with, the geometry done sort of. But |
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| 04:02 | you look at your if you look your later steps, you want one |
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| 04:08 | , right? We began with Which is it? The first one |
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| 04:19 | began with two forms, right? huh. And you see how your |
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| 04:26 | , So 123 Step five. You have a hint of the second planet |
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| 04:32 | . Sort of letting the shoreline and become one face. Yeah. |
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| 04:38 | I lost one of your con Anybody got one final form? |
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| 04:45 | Yeah. Just re doing that with So particularly stepped in the big step |
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| 04:55 | of seven if you draw that with uniforms, you change that. |
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| 05:01 | Got the basic idea. But I here, you know, for no |
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| 05:04 | honoring the beginning. German. I gave you, which is a |
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| 05:09 | and the shelf smoke break. Sometimes coincide, and sometimes they split |
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| 05:17 | And the height of your client form number is asking high. That's a |
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| 05:25 | . Just think about, you just which is step seven. Yet |
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| 05:30 | that one there, that's a pretty Khanna form for a shoreline. |
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| 05:35 | That's almost so. You take the conflict slope steps, factors just dealt |
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| 05:39 | this. You might want to just think that John Okay. Okay, |
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| 05:49 | I think the difference between what you want Joseph Data's huge took seven a |
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| 05:54 | it way back. But you haven't preserved double uniform, Joseph. Sort |
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| 06:00 | let it stick seaward. And I the I think caution out. |
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| 06:04 | Joseph, I did tell you sediment dress to be reduced. So the |
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| 06:09 | is you can no longer allow that . Just a see what you've got |
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| 06:14 | Knock it back. So that would the change I would make. |
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| 06:20 | very good. Anybody else wanna Share everything? Okay, finished |
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| 06:33 | And then from what I've got anybody else Does anybody else want to |
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| 06:40 | you what they thought? That this not to test you guys? This |
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| 06:43 | just so any I have a feeling But I think if you see what |
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| 06:46 | else is doing, you get receiving . Hopefully get get feedback that you |
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| 06:53 | Mine looks different from there. So just through the end of the day |
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| 07:01 | Friday. Yes. So we wanted We could share what we have on |
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| 07:07 | . Yeah. Yeah. Okay. , I used to get it |
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| 07:11 | So it's not really about Yes. what Geraldine's got is she's He's preserving |
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| 07:21 | double platform every time. Don't Maybe as much as I would like, |
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| 07:30 | will say in your step one. don't think I had any seat. |
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| 07:36 | rises. Step one. Did I step one. Little rises by 5 |
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| 07:46 | , does it all? OK, so Yeah, that looks pretty |
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| 07:51 | I could maybe you wrote a bit aggressively, and there should be at |
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| 07:59 | national easier just for my correcting it you put the If you if you |
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| 08:05 | the number in the actual unit. ? Just help me keep track of |
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| 08:11 | steps. Numbers they're kind of like here. So Step five is the |
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| 08:18 | stuff, right? Yeah. Step six is okay. That's a |
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| 08:25 | . And then you've got a back seven. You know, it's it's |
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| 08:31 | doesn't look too bad. Yeah, got some exams in there. So |
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| 08:35 | one thing you haven't drawn is the between the yellow shallow marine sand and |
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| 08:41 | the norm. Aries you have You to choose between shoreline and pro down |
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| 08:46 | That is pretty good you might Just add in that the other thing |
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| 08:51 | would. Is there anyone? I point to what you were doing. |
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| 08:56 | can write. You can annotate it it. You can't see my |
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| 09:05 | right? If you could do a . Sure. Your screen. I |
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| 09:09 | request control. You can control the . Was that requests? Control? |
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| 09:17 | can control her mouse, I Top for Use a few options from |
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| 09:39 | point. Fortunate it was a should . Get my point. Got |
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| 10:00 | Okay. So, uh, so ? I'm seeing is vertical black |
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| 10:09 | right turning point. So the if look at the yellow sandstone in the |
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| 10:21 | polygon that I drew that the base is at the Joe point from the |
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| 10:28 | you've got a curving shore. Face , Steve. And then it flattens |
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| 10:31 | the pro down. Okay, you it the pro doubts of brown and |
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| 10:36 | got sandstone yellow and your shoes online a band between sandstone and shale is |
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| 10:41 | that inflection point from the steep sandy , which is the delta front |
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| 10:46 | the bottom set, which is You see that? And when I |
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| 10:52 | to go to the younger units, know the secret blue line at 30 |
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| 10:59 | and that blew on hits the base your sort of pink dipping surface. |
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| 11:06 | there should be a sandy shoes. right there that he got the second |
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| 11:12 | . Three uniforms. They're made from uniforms there, but they, |
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| 11:20 | so zigzag. A strong correctly. the units wonder Fun 1 to |
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| 11:26 | Our borders got the base of the close to the point where the slope |
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| 11:32 | from Steve to flat. You see sort of losing that a little bit |
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| 11:37 | . Now you got Sam in the of the shelf rights. You want |
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| 11:40 | knock it back to that point Does that make sense? And it |
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| 11:45 | . So it's not a huge just a metal allow you to That |
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| 11:49 | show the So That's a faces boundary in the same way that tracked the |
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| 11:53 | through space. We can also track Suzanne line. That's another proxy for |
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| 11:59 | shoreline trajectory. Although it's not the that face is pandering will show the |
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| 12:05 | p a and AP curving pattern as out from shoreline. Does that make |
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| 12:12 | ? So just just just redraw that on. So it is right there |
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| 12:18 | the inflection point that that's the only change. I would make it |
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| 12:25 | Very good, thank you. Anybody have any different? One question |
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| 12:36 | I think the big, big step having a problem with. I think |
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| 12:40 | got through the big stuff. I having a problem, which was number |
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| 12:43 | . I was thinking of myself. much, um, you know the |
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| 12:50 | take off of the first of the years units and we're really not before |
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| 12:56 | units. Four doesn't do anything for . But how do I know exactly |
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| 12:59 | to draw that? There is no . And in life, when I |
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| 13:03 | number six, I was still when was still wondering, Like, |
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| 13:09 | for the more distal stuff. How draw that kind of form over the |
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| 13:13 | the over the edge, every single ? I felt like I was doing |
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| 13:17 | correctly, but I felt like I doing it. Knew I was |
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| 13:19 | I felt like I was I knew I was going into the basis. |
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| 13:22 | I just get curving everything, jacket chair again. Really? How |
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| 13:30 | you notice? How do you noticed that emotional surface and had after |
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| 13:33 | Next step heading you then? You know, I had a feel |
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| 13:37 | number six. Yeah, and there's two answers to that question. One |
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| 13:49 | I'm kind of mumbling here. I'm to remember I was doing so well |
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| 13:56 | . I was finding myself yesterday. is a white Ford here. Remember |
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| 14:02 | that is? I think if you the screen again, it will give |
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| 14:08 | the option to do a way Yes. There. So, |
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| 14:24 | did you see that? Is that way? Got some sort of |
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| 14:32 | a form that looks like this Right . Then we drop sea level. |
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| 14:36 | we So I'll draw that uniform and weigh eroded. Right. So let's |
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| 14:42 | , see, little goes down there the new point. So So? |
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| 14:55 | that was the old uniform. We that away, okay? And, |
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| 15:01 | and then the new short sea levels that points of the new shoreline has |
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| 15:06 | start there, the old, the the old shoreline has now gone |
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| 15:13 | right? So that's a sequence And then that's the position of the |
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| 15:17 | deposition of Wedge and may get some water set of. It's out |
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| 15:22 | And this that relations there is called lap. So the low stand wedges |
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| 15:28 | laughing the the shellfish. So you a major shift in the position of |
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| 15:36 | and that way we could see a bit, so the wedge builds up |
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| 15:42 | then see on rises more. And this set of facts that I can't |
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| 15:46 | up and there's a new wedge, gonna be a Hiestand position. That's |
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| 15:50 | of kind of the way that I think about doing that. So the |
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| 15:56 | thing is, is what we've seen we've seen So one of the nice |
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| 16:06 | about putting this up is we've seen in your personalities. We've seen some |
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| 16:14 | in the way that you make Okay? Geraldine was reluctant to get |
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| 16:21 | of, so she was very conservative the amount of erosion that she |
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| 16:29 | Okay. And s it was extremely with his erosion had removed enormous amount |
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| 16:37 | material. Neither is correct. What? You will find one of |
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| 16:45 | things that we do this exercise will . I put everyone's answers often. |
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| 16:48 | amazing how some people just never really people very conservative in allowing sentiment and |
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| 16:56 | students tend to be much more liberal happy and pile settlement receiver. |
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| 17:01 | And these reflect what I call the biases making certifications. So what we |
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| 17:08 | is it is it is like, though you're also following the rules |
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| 17:14 | you may have different answers because I the word conservative liberal in a very |
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| 17:23 | sense. This has nothing to do politics or who vote for it. |
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| 17:28 | just it's just the way you attack and your willingness to push for |
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| 17:35 | There's notion Single right answer in the nature is nature. So nature has |
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| 17:44 | one solution, But but we're making . We could be aggressive, Those |
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| 17:52 | . Conservatives like this, those interpretations you know, it's if you're If |
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| 17:58 | overly conservative, you might miss but you might be. You might |
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| 18:05 | better at assessing the risk. if you're too liberal with your If |
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| 18:10 | put too much sand, you may a rosy picture. May have a |
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| 18:16 | like your cup. Maybe have maybe full. But maybe your baby. |
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| 18:20 | you're underestimating this and to free easy your interpretation. And, you |
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| 18:29 | if you're too conservative, miss an . If its you liberal, you |
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| 18:34 | take too much risk, right? answer is the right answer. Companies |
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| 18:40 | to decide whether or not your interpretation is too liberal and you've got too |
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| 18:46 | prospectively and you're being naive or unrealistic this same time. If you're too |
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| 18:53 | , you'll never drill a well. always risky, right? You'll never |
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| 18:57 | any money, so you know if in the world business, you have |
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| 19:03 | take risks. You have to estimate wrist and what you will find by |
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| 19:09 | your answers. Do what we've just . We need to get a feeling |
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| 19:14 | the fact that that, you you've all rules reasonably well. Even |
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| 19:20 | those rules, there's room for some . You know, I would be |
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| 19:26 | interesting. Psychological study to interview See if there's something about your psychology |
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| 19:33 | allows Geraldine to be a bit more about how much erosion versus the more |
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| 19:39 | erosion. So you know, it's . Like I said, there's no |
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| 19:46 | no there's no answer, but it's think it's really useful. Think about |
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| 19:54 | . That makes sense. I think lot much by sharing. Okay. |
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| 20:03 | questions about the assignment? Okay, sort of feel like you're all |
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| 20:09 | Well, on track. Okay. humbling. It's good that you do |
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| 20:22 | . I mean, obviously my job to critique and be able to |
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| 20:26 | but I tend to think my job from control. You know, I |
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| 20:31 | , I'm a teacher. If you of think mia's you know, the |
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| 20:35 | manager, she year old company you , depending on. Besides, the |
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| 20:40 | for four, you know, ultimately a mentor or, you know, |
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| 20:45 | companies typically have a geologist. Their is to figure out what strengths |
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| 20:52 | Figure out what your training needs are to give you the mentorship that allows |
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| 20:56 | to make the most reasonable interpretations, advantage of personalities, your strengths and |
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| 21:05 | on good company has a mixture people conservatively and a bit more aggressive in |
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| 21:12 | thinking on a good manager addresses those opinions and then makes a decision based |
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| 21:20 | what makes the most economic sense But of course, when you the |
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| 21:29 | with this group is that you're all stages in the program. Once you |
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| 21:34 | Dom's introduction from geology and you get teach that forces now and I do |
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| 21:41 | whole ended it on on risk of . It's a critical skills and in |
|
| 21:49 | management. These days, a lot it's done with sort of Monte Carlo |
|
| 21:56 | . 10 p nineties. And so you do is you say, |
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| 22:00 | you know, basically let these probability generate so upside there, there's there's |
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| 22:12 | logic or United would like mine, certain that that's the That's usually conservative |
|
| 22:18 | . Pizza is like hope. There's small possibility that resort would be this |
|
| 22:23 | small. But it's risky, And so what companies do is they |
|
| 22:28 | these statistical estimations of Paris. They take all of your answers. |
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| 22:35 | you know, conservative answer, and OK. That's with 10. It's |
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| 22:40 | certain that they would take rest imagines a small chance of that and they'll |
|
| 22:48 | , You make money with you night you can say that. But you |
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| 22:54 | , if you can only make money like, Well, there's only 10% |
|
| 22:58 | . But that's gonna be a Isn't worth taking that risk right where |
|
| 23:03 | do it is. They spread their against a variety of projects, so |
|
| 23:08 | had a small number of very risky all specs. You know, knowing |
|
| 23:13 | one of China's gonna be successful and they have a large number of less |
|
| 23:18 | prospects on everything in between, and have many, many, many discussions |
|
| 23:26 | about the fact that when I worked , they had far too much emphasis |
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| 23:31 | extremely risky international exploration and they were their shirts. Growing carbon dioxide charge |
|
| 23:39 | in the example yesterday. So risk really is everything. But as one |
|
| 23:49 | my managers at s resources counter, told me during the first couple of |
|
| 23:54 | of a career he was a big guy named Ray Wilkinson. He said |
|
| 23:59 | all comes down to a good He was adamant that that the quality |
|
| 24:05 | the technical work office was essential based a good detective, work is a |
|
| 24:14 | , and it all falls apart. , you know, this class sequence |
|
| 24:19 | sugar feel what I love to talk all the stories, you know, |
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| 24:24 | really does come down to to make we understand George well, and get |
|
| 24:32 | right. Okay. All right. 30 minutes of weak mounting off |
|
| 24:41 | Could take a choice. Haven't take little five minute break. Is this |
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| 24:45 | in this election? Next is gonna a long one. Go get a |
|
| 24:50 | . I'll be down about We'll just back in about 10 minutes. Said |
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| 24:55 | , I get the reporting started at lectures, give Maria a chance to |
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| 25:01 | this lecture and then get started on start. I don't think not in |
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| 25:12 | . The recording |
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