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GEOL6381 - Zoom_10-30-20 Fri_3
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00:02 So I've started the recorder. I'm to share my screen. Can everybody
00:21 lecture to Yes. Okay. It like everybody's here. Okay, so
00:38 is lecture to anyone. Just a . I'm back. Mhm.
00:57 Eso What we're gonna look at now , um, sort of, but
01:03 resource and reserve is, um, that's been a narrative for a long
01:09 . Is this thing called peak And ah, a lot of people
01:15 worried about peak oil. No one to be worried about it right
01:20 and it really has a lot to , obviously, with the balance between
01:27 and consumption. And, uh, also I should say production.
01:37 sometimes I put consumption in here. probably should be production, but we
01:42 only consume a ZMA each as we and s o when, uh,
01:48 that balance between production and demand prices go up and prices go
01:55 If we have, uh, we're more than we need. Then,
02:02 , we're going to see a drop the prices and vice versa. A
02:07 of big questions is once we get with, say, the bacon or
02:12 , what's going to replace that. also gonna bring up something about a
02:17 inconvenient truth. Um, about sustainability actually in that movie. It was
02:28 very first slide, and everybody seems be ignoring it. And,
02:34 going to kind of look at, know, how much energy that we
02:38 need. And it's not just on and gas issue. It's a total
02:42 issue, and then we're going toe of Get to where? Where does
02:48 leave us? And I'm gonna Early week, I'm gonna send you an
02:52 , And you can, um, in your five cents. And
02:56 I'm gonna be grading you on the that you've got some original data.
03:01 looked at some original data and you up with a real conclusion about
03:08 Okay, this this is getting to an old picture. This is National
03:12 2003, but I don't think much changed in the world. We still
03:21 still are. What? What? lot of people like to call a
03:25 society. You know, we buy and we throw them away. We
03:29 things and we throw them away. , I'm sure many of you have
03:35 about all the plastic that's end up the ocean. Um, the first
03:42 , for some reason, is why the oil companies making all this
03:48 Nobody ever puts forward the question. again, this is about perspectives.
03:55 , you know, the real problem that we dump waste into the
04:00 and that's kind of the first, first line of defense. You
04:06 we have a lot of, uh think, very well meaning environmentalists to
04:13 and collect all this stuff. But think their job would be a whole
04:16 easier if we would figure out a that we didn't have so much to
04:22 away. And, uh, and said something like that, you know
04:29 a plastic straw would ever end up the ocean? I personally don't
04:34 And, uh, but apparently there cities along the coast that dump lots
04:42 plastic into the ocean, and there there are always around us.
04:48 of course, is one thing, , not using. What we don't
04:53 to use is another. But when look at this picture, you
04:56 you have to realize that Ah, do live in a disposable economy.
05:03 one thing that I've noticed in this is that people used to go to
05:09 store and they look at things you know, they might decide,
05:12 know, do I need that? they looked at it a few more
05:14 and decided they didn't need it. what a lot of people do is
05:18 get online and they order something from or whatever, and, uh,
05:24 isn't this way, But some people order and order and order. And
05:28 course we have. We have a of these, uh, televised shopping
05:36 . Now people watch TV and they and by and by and so a
05:43 of the problem is really an individual . It's, um it's It's like
05:50 , For example, Um uh, companies were dumping this terrible thing called
05:57 Pone into the James River in and they basically wiped. They poisoned
06:04 lot of people, and they also out one of the best oyster beds
06:09 this planet in the James River, the head of the James River near
06:12 Chesapeake Bay. That's one problem. that's That's a real reason to get
06:18 with industry. But another problem is everybody that buys and a can of
06:25 ah, you know, may spray much on their lawn or wherever you're
06:30 it. And at the end of day, they may just dump it
06:33 a storm drain. And it's no deal of one person, does
06:39 Essentially. I mean, it's still , but it's it's not serious,
06:43 just imagine if 150 million people dump can of insecticide in the storm
06:51 Uh, once a month there once year or maybe once every 10
06:56 it's going to start adding up. so there's a lot of this is
07:00 responsibility and something that I've I've You know, I've been in school
07:07 a long time, Uh, uh, longer than most of you
07:12 been alive. I was actually in , I think, but But I
07:18 when when I was a young man on my bachelors degree, I'll never
07:24 . The campus that I walked on pristine. You never saw anybody throwing
07:31 on the ground on that kind of . But nowadays, a lot of
07:37 say, Well, you know, put that there because they pay someone
07:39 pick it up and they wouldn't have job if I didn't throw trash on
07:42 ground. And I think that's just wrong attitude. I don't think people
07:48 you have hpe a thio to pick the trash would be out of a
07:53 if if we didn't litter the So one thing that I've noticed about
07:57 U of H campuses many, many that I go in there. There's
08:01 awful lot of litter around, and some of the labs. You'll
08:06 up the lab drawers and students have or candy wrappers in there. And
08:10 not picking on students or anybody because is this is something that's commonplace.
08:15 know, you hop in somebody's car you can tell. Over the past
08:21 years, they've been to 25 fast places because the rappers air still in
08:26 car. And I think I think of the one of the biggest problems
08:32 pollution in this disposable society we live is people's attitude, and I think
08:38 an individual level people need to take for this kind of thing. And
08:45 , of course, if a lot trash was put in proper receptacles and
08:52 proper receptacles were dumped in proper dump , we would never see any trash
08:58 the ocean, no matter how much produce. So there. There are
09:03 lot of problems when you see plastics the ocean that aren't related to the
09:10 that actually made the plastics. I that's pretty important. And and if
09:15 stop and think about the incredible value plastics in our society, at any
09:21 , maybe many of you don't don't about it like I dio.
09:27 you know, just imagine the PVC different types of plastic pipes that we
09:32 use for our plumbing systems in our systems. Uh, they used to
09:38 . There was a time when they cardboard coated with tar paper as major
09:47 and water supply lines. Thank God don't do that anymore, and there's
09:53 good thing about it. When you that plastic in the ground, unless
09:58 digs it up, it's going to there, and it's going to function
10:04 probably hundreds of years. So it's both efficient and it's safe when when
10:10 use things the proper way and it's same thing with trash and anyway,
10:18 that hasn't changed. There's all these of things, and if you stop
10:23 think about it, even cars are made out of more and more plastic
10:30 . And as we go to electric cars, we're going to need more
10:34 more plastic materials to make these cars so that the batteries that they have
10:42 are getting better all the time. have longer lifetimes. You know a
10:46 of them. It's never a good to go below half on your
10:51 and they advertise, you know, , 300 miles on one charge,
10:57 you never wanted want to use up whole charge. So if you use
11:03 materials like plastics, that air durable and they last a long time
11:08 they actually can absorb some shock if bump into somebody, uh, you
11:13 , it's actually a good thing to plastic for those reasons, and that's
11:17 of the non combustible part of the industry. Anyway, having said all
11:23 that, this is the society we in, and as individuals we can
11:29 as much of not even mawr, , to protect our environment. If
11:34 personally take a responsibility for the products we use ourselves. Okay, so
11:41 off of that soap box. So is a natural resource? And this
11:47 sort of a strictly, uh, written out. Think it's a concentration
11:54 is it's natural. It's something you . It's a substance. It's a
12:00 solid or a gas that occurs. it has to be significant quantities that
12:05 can use in society and benefit And of course, some of these
12:11 renewable and some are non renewable. this, to me is kind of
12:16 funny term to the renewable and non . Imagine the oil in the ground
12:24 being non renewable. But there is much in the ground, uh,
12:31 as much as we think that will out of it, we may never
12:34 run out of it in our lifetimes we find something to replace it.
12:40 then it will no longer be a . But But, you know,
12:45 we have geologists and geophysicists and know to find this Mm even though it's
12:51 non renewable resource. In some we do have not an infinite
12:57 but we have an adequate supply. that might be a more appropriate
13:05 And then we have things that we renewable and just imagine people with bio
13:13 , growing plants or crops. Of , the renewable. We can keep
13:18 them. But can we grow enough supply the societies that we're creating with
13:26 eight billion people? Within a very period of time? It's going to
13:30 10 billion people. You know How do these renewable things renew fast
13:36 to actually be a substantial benefit to and available at the levels that we
13:43 him? And that's what makes it a resource. And, uh,
13:48 I'll talk more about this in a part of this. But again,
13:53 natural resource. It's It's, of , got to be naturally occurring.
14:00 let me ask the class, Do think oil is naturally occurring?
14:09 I don't know if you can raise hand in this, uh, in
14:12 , but if you could Yes. . It is absolutely naturally occurring.
14:22 , would anybody want to answer this is, is oil a bio fuel
14:27 not? A bio fuel the fuel comes from biological mass. It is
14:34 fuel. Uh, probably 80%. not 95% of the American society would
14:41 not considered a bio fuel because it out of a tank, but we
14:48 better. Okay, so So just of keep that in mind.
14:54 so, um, I have a menu thing in front of it,
14:58 here's here's a sort of the one to grid Total resource is we have
15:05 things. They're called discovered and And a lot of people have an
15:13 with this diagram that work in the industry because we have to sometimes prove
15:20 beyond a shadow of a doubt that on to a bank. So we
15:23 have a different and more precise definition what these are. But these aren't
15:29 aren't bankers definitions, thes air, straightforward sort of scientific definitions. And
15:38 what is a discovered resource is, obviously the most important thing here is
15:44 something that we know exist, and recoverable. And today and what we
15:53 by recoverable today is if you come here, we can recover economically.
15:59 example, I've helped discover Ah reservoir , uh, in Denmark. He
16:09 60 million barrels of oil, but were no pipelines anywhere near it.
16:15 so to use this, they really to be able to get a pipeline
16:20 it. And the pipelines to get it could have cost almost a much
16:26 , uh, the added value of that oil in the first place.
16:33 it was an economic. It was reason whatsoever to do it,
16:42 And so it became sub economic. , so it's less than economic.
16:48 It was a known deposit, but recoverable today, okay? And so
16:55 often call these reserves. Now, word reserve gets really hairy in the
17:01 industry and the and the banking because you have to have pipe on
17:12 to call it a reserve. You just say I've discovered it, and
17:15 can't just say I know we can it. You have to have a
17:19 on it. But from a scientific , in terms of total resource is
17:25 we look at discovered versus undiscovered economic sub economic. We only have three
17:32 we have recoverable today, which we reserves. We have deposits known,
17:39 they're not recoverable in today's market And then we have these other things
17:45 are hypothetical. Anybody want to venture guess a hypothetical resource in terms of
17:51 oil industry? Like healing? yeah, helium would be one,
18:01 I was thinking more like oil and . What have you like the east
18:06 of the US? Absolutely. That's what I'm talking about. Now,
18:09 hypothetical. We don't have a pipe it. We don't know what's gonna
18:15 . And I don't know if you're of this, but the U.
18:18 Geological Survey a big part of it in and looks at places like the
18:26 of Texas or the alias scene of or X, y and Z these
18:32 areas. That might be what we call several different plays in a given
18:40 . They know how much has been . They they know how much banks
18:45 calling reserves because they kind of know they can get out of it.
18:51 , but they come up with a number based on the geology of Maybe
18:58 know a little bit about the source and how big it is. And
19:02 predicted that, you know, You , we've produced X amount of barrels
19:07 oil and next x amount of, ah, 1000 cubic feet of natural
19:17 . But given the volume of this and the volume of what we think
19:24 be in the source rock, they up with how much more they think
19:29 could find and produce from that And that's hypothetical, too.
19:34 because we haven't actually been able to it with seismic Orwell, Orwell near
19:42 or anything like that. So that's a real hypothetical one is.
19:47 of course, the East Coast is perfect example. Okay, let me
19:52 you since we brought up the East and I grew up on the East
19:56 , so I was hoping, hoping to retire in Virginia Beach, where
20:03 grew up. Uh, because anybody me why I would want to go
20:09 in Virginia Beach. Besides, it's nice place. Yeah, Okay.
20:20 not gonna drill over there. okay. Yeah. What happened was
20:26 then this really is a stunner to . Um, during, uh,
20:31 Obama administration. They actually approved leasing Virginia. And now it's like people
20:44 scared to death of doing it once . Does anybody know why that
20:53 Yeah, exactly. And this gets to personal responsibility. Um, the
21:01 industry needs to be responsible, not out of 100 of the companies,
21:06 all 100 of them need to be . And when they're not, this
21:13 of thing happens. And, uh that's why we're not drilling offshore Virginia
21:20 . It's not because of either political . It's because the industry itself in
21:29 particular company cut 11 corners. When with a good amount of sense would
21:38 Anytime you cut 11 critical corners, gonna have an accident. And but
21:44 what happened. Um, looking back it, I know. Ah,
21:50 know a lot of the people that at BP, and I know most
21:53 people that worked at BP were horrified all this and would never have let
21:58 like that happen under their watch. it did, and and that's one
22:03 the things that we have to do what else happens when somebody makes a
22:07 like that really is if everybody else , and, uh, a really
22:15 word pops up. It's called You get more regulations, and,
22:21 , I would venture to guess, , except for one thing. For
22:26 most part, the regulations we already in place before that spill were
22:32 The problem is, is enforcement and following the rules. And since they
22:40 , you know, you end up this problem and then you end up
22:42 more regulations and regulations air created out , uh they need to protect either
22:50 people of the United States or And it's realistic to understand that all
22:57 companies operating costs would drop if we less regulations. And we wouldn't need
23:05 many regulations if 100 out of 100 by the rules instead of just 99
23:12 96 or 97 or whatever. uh, and so again, it's
23:17 about personal at a corporate level and in terms of throwing your trash
23:24 All of these things, uh, be impacted not just by a
23:32 but by the people that work in company and the leadership, especially of
23:37 company. Okay, So anyway, get back here to re sources and
23:45 . So reserves resource is that air to be identifiable and technically recoverable under
23:50 economic conditions and total resource is include plus undiscovered, not identified and currently
24:00 economic. So we know there is resource offshore the Atlantic, but we
24:09 have reserves. Offshore Atlantic. Does get that? Okay, if you
24:15 for an oil company or if you for slumbers or somebody like that,
24:20 definition of a reserve is going to quite different because you have tow,
24:26 pipe behind it, and you have be able to prove it with maps
24:29 the whole nine yards. But from academic standpoint and really an industry
24:35 if you think about it, reserves are not just resource is,
24:41 there. Resource is that we can under current economic and regulatory conditions.
24:49 is, if we remove some of regulations or we reduce some of the
24:54 of producing, we might actually be to produce that or, in the
25:00 of the field in Denmark, that was talking about. There was a
25:06 natural gas pipeline coming all the way offshore Norway that went, went all
25:14 way to Germany and it went by . And after a while they built
25:22 of these pipelines. They're able get some the ability to put some
25:28 through parts of those systems. And field is now economic and producing a
25:34 of oil. And it didn't require extra. There was a massive natural
25:39 supply offshore Norway and, uh, the north of the central, the
25:50 central Grob. And and, uh so basically, they were able
26:01 uh, put in pipelines just for . And as an offshoot, you
26:06 able Thio produce it anywhere in the where you have off shore facilities and
26:12 have pipelines quite often. Uh, the infrastructure there already makes the future
26:22 a lot easier to produce because thea , uh, outlay in terms off
26:31 equipment and that sort of thing in has it least in part been taken
26:36 of, so that can help us something from being a resource to reserve
26:43 keeping our regulations at a minimum. making sure we have the ones we
26:47 . So people don't put on too extra ones and then also the
26:55 uh, with infrastructure is infrastructure has . Resource is turn into reserves.
27:04 , so then I go into and of course, when we we
27:08 at what a petroleum reserve might uh, here's a little bit more
27:14 definition of that. And so if was to ask you what a petroleum
27:19 was, I might do that. if we're just talking about resource is
27:24 reserves of those resource is this is This is the overarching definition of
27:31 Then we can get more specific and about total reserves that include proven probable
27:37 possible and and then also a lot people have this thing they call bookable
27:45 . And I know when I when worked in production geology Ah, the
27:53 was 100%. The probable was a percent, and the possible was even
27:58 smaller percent. But we put that there because we figured in some of
28:02 fields we were in, we had pipes. We have the infrastructure.
28:06 or later, we were going to this. And but this changes.
28:13 , depending on where you're at, state you're in, whether it's offshore
28:17 U. S. Waters. There's lot of rules now on what actually
28:21 a bookable reserve. So you have be careful with that. Okay,
28:27 Here's another way of looking at and this is known as the resource
28:35 . Triangles tend to make us think pyramids. For some reason, I
28:38 figured that out yet, but but , these four sided triangles or
28:45 this one doesn't have four sides. just two dimensional. And what you
28:53 see here is we have unrecoverable resource , but we know it's in
29:00 For example, there's, um, hydrates all over the place, but
29:05 don't know how to get him. huh. How to produce them without
29:11 , and possibly destroying the equipment that using. Thio release it from the
29:17 and or the surface of the Then we have things that we know
29:22 we way. In other words, can drill deep enough we can You
29:27 put some kind of jacket on it heat it up, weaken, get
29:31 production line to it, Uh, it's still not economic. And
29:38 then there's the ones that are economically , and you bounce back and forth
29:42 this line, depending on the price the resource, the demand, the
29:53 , which controlled to a big The price but also things like
29:59 Is there a pipeline there or If there's a pipeline there, something
30:05 down here in one area would pop here in another area where they already
30:10 infrastructure. Ah, if somebody makes big mistake on all these regulations,
30:19 up are economically recoverable. Resource might down into here because the cost to
30:26 goes up. But then, as things get better as our price of
30:31 gets down in the value of what producing goes up, we get Mawr
30:36 . That Aaron this proved, proved . And then here we just start
30:40 it. We have it produced. it's produced, that's it. That's
30:43 resource that we knew was there, we made money on it,
30:49 in some cases to keep cash flow , we might actually find ourselves over
30:56 things at a cost higher than what getting paid, and that's happened to
31:01 companies recently to with the price drop the need for cash flow. So
31:07 this is really more profound than you think. Just looking at it
31:14 you know, for a reservoir to in, any one of these boxes
31:19 change just based on economics and on support. An important thing to remember
31:24 economics can be based on infrastructure, environment that you're operating in, the
31:33 that you're operating in, and and or not the players in that area
31:41 trying to play by the rules to the level of regulations down.
31:49 so here is. Here's a concept bothered a lot of people probably up
31:55 the year 2000, but still even that. And now some people are
32:02 about it still. But it's a called peak oil. And,
32:11 does anybody could anybody tell me very what are the elements of peak
32:18 But what creates peak oil? It takes a few words to explain
32:27 Demand on population. It would be and supply, and, um,
32:37 seems a little tricky and people have hard time dealing with it, but
32:42 actually happened. You know, this is a history, and this is
32:50 ah, why We, um, talking about peak production because it happened
32:57 the United States. So what happens we get to a point like this
33:07 this? This This doesn't really show , but there's a reason why it's
33:11 this. Remember I told you that produce what we consume. Remember
33:19 And here we have this chart, we're producing what we can consume,
33:23 we can produce what we can And you know that oil consumption didn't
33:31 off a this point in time. ? Oil production. Excuse me?
33:37 consumption kept going up and up in United States. So what happened
33:43 New story. What happened here is had to start right around 1970.
33:51 had to start importing an awful lot oil. Okay, so the United
33:57 had reached peak production. The world reached peak production, but the United
34:01 had and so what? Peak What peak oil is is when you've
34:08 around and you've drilled everything you think can drill and you can't find risk
34:14 people see my hand. Uh, sitting here waving in the air.
34:18 don't know if you could see but you know, you're producing,
34:22 producing, you're producing. And then matter how hard you try, you
34:27 find any more oil to keep to keep up with that rise in
34:31 need for production. And that's what's oil. In other words, at
34:37 point and at this point, we dramatic, um uh, deficits in
34:44 United States. In other words, became a net a net importer of
34:49 instead of of self sustaining. And got everybody upset. So this this
34:55 everybody over the last two decades. , of course, then we get
35:02 into about right here on this thing really dramatically after that for the United
35:07 . But for the world, the thing changed too, because we started
35:11 produce unconventional. So let's go look this. This line and here
35:21 um okay, this is production in United States, and here in 2000
35:32 nine, BBC's TV show called They called me up and they had
35:37 question for me. Uh, they to know how I felt about peak
35:44 because because, as it turns the British have given this guy named
35:50 , um, credit for coming up the term of peak oil.
35:57 And they wanted me to tell them . And I said, Well,
35:59 can't tell you that because because I this was gonna happen. I knew
36:05 when they asked me this that this about to happen. Fact it turned
36:09 that right then because this was starting happen in 2000 and nine, we
36:15 pulling on. Ah, a lot these unconventional resource is they started coming
36:23 . Okay, so why was peak supply averted? Well, one of
36:29 that happens is when I first made slide, I just had the 2000
36:34 8 2009 economic slump. But the thing that's happened is, since about
36:42 to now 2021 the oil industry has in a major slump, too.
36:46 you might even push that number back say 2014, if you like.
36:53 . And, uh, but the thing is, numerous resource discoveries
37:00 Ah, a large number of probably 56 or seven multi billion barrel fields
37:07 found in offshore Brazil. Three offshore the U. S. Was finding
37:13 , uh, oil resource is in deep water sub salt especially, but
37:20 in many basins. And then the like the unconventional is came in like
37:28 . And all of a sudden they a way with the price going up
37:32 make money off the tar sands. then, of course, the Permian
37:37 woken up again. I can remember a big part of my career in
37:42 oil industry Ah, that the Permian was pretty much dead and would be
37:48 forever. And then we figured out to to do horizontal drilling in Hydrofracking
37:58 put those two things together, come with a way to create surface area
38:07 would create more permeability in reservoirs that no permeability. And so we were
38:12 to get those untapped trapped. Resource out of the ground and one of
38:21 things that I think a lot of and even I sometimes have a hard
38:29 imagining this. But the demand for in this world is very,
38:36 very large. It's a huge, demand. Um, we can come
38:44 with lots of alternate sources. But you look at the total demand for
38:49 in the world, even even right during the pandemic, its's massive,
38:56 a massive amount of energy. uh, and it is very,
39:02 hard for people to understand what 85 105 million barrels of oil equivalent are
39:15 terms of demand for just one One of our energy sources. That's
39:22 just, and that's that's every you know, that's a lot of
39:31 . Okay, um, increase price oil tents to increase the supply.
39:41 ? Because you make money by drilling up? Yeah, I remember we
39:45 talking about economic and sub economic. the price goes up, what was
39:52 economic becomes economic. So without even another well, stuff that we couldn't
40:00 money off of starts to make But then when the price goes
40:06 the bankers go. Hey, I to get in. I need a
40:08 of this pie. We need to drilling like crazy and get some more
40:13 . And and so they essentially over That's why it's such a cyclical
40:22 Once we realize we have a valuable again, we get over excited about
40:29 . And so an increase in supply reduces the price of oil,
40:35 and then then you're kind of But you know, one of the
40:39 important things to remember is technology reduces reduce costs. Um, of
40:45 technology is what allows us to produce , but that technology is not
40:51 That's not the cheapest thing in the . And what else happens with technology
40:57 even, um, you know, , I'll lump it all together and
41:01 What happens to technology when the price oil goes up? Usually they cut
41:08 group, but But they cut the typically in these companies. But it
41:12 like it's more important than ever because it increases your bottom line. It
41:17 . And, uh, and, course, if you farm it all
41:21 and you have to call up say, what does slumbers they do
41:24 what does? What does horizontal drilling do when the price of oil goes
41:30 , charge you an arm and a for services? They charge more and
41:35 do they charge more? Because demand higher and the supply of their equipment
41:39 their technology becomes limited. And so all these tethers holding us back.
41:47 there's technology which helps us produce things . But it costs more when we
41:52 the price goes up. Ah, we make mistakes, regulations go
41:57 All these things off are things that actually have some control over if we
42:03 about it and we need to work it And, uh, one of
42:07 things that has shocked me and I've in the oil industry for a
42:11 I'm not in it now, but been paying attention to it. But
42:15 I was actually in it, you , it's just kind of amazing in
42:21 latest boom, Uh, because unconventional require a lot of straws to
42:32 Uh, the resource is that they , they have to drill a
42:38 In other words, you have to drilling and drilling to keep the cash
42:41 going and going and, uh, unconventional. If the price went
42:48 you could just walk over to the and turn it off and leave it
42:52 and produce what you needed. And when the price went back up,
42:57 went over and you turned the valve and you opened back up again.
43:02 But because of the cost of you know the technology that goes into
43:09 and horizontal drilling, Uh, when when that price goes up, those
43:16 go way up. But when the comes down, they don't drop his
43:21 . Aziz, you need them to or as significantly as you need them
43:24 make your costs go down. And that causes a problem. So,
43:30 , that's why I think the the that we've seen recently is like a
43:37 whammy. Because because maintaining your output conventional wells, they have a longer
43:49 . They last the production out Ah, good conventional well, is
43:53 last a lot longer, and the curve is not as steep as it
43:57 be in in a unconventional resource. when we think about it a xgo
44:03 unconventional czar, there's sort of um, you know, the flowers
44:09 in the spring. But, you , by the summer they're all
44:12 Whereas in a conventional you've got, got coconuts that live all through the
44:20 , and they just keep dropping coconuts top of you all the time.
44:22 don't know if that really happens, that's the analogy. I'm used.
44:28 , but here's here's something that's really about peak oil. And,
44:34 even though it might not have been peak oil with quotes around it,
44:40 knew what peak oil waas. and in 18 57 here, Romania
44:51 2000 barrels of oil, and that the beginning of the modern oil
44:56 And of course, you're from Pennsylvania my mother's family was from Pennsylvania,
45:04 were told, and you believed your life that the first oil well was
45:08 Pennsylvania. But it wasn't the first was in Romania. That was,
45:15 , for commercial purposes. Uh, any of you have a guess where
45:21 lot of, uh, petroleum came before these wells were being grilled just
45:29 seeps, right? Exactly. There tar pits in places, and they're
45:33 , and there's tar sands and their up there, and, uh,
45:38 along the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan. just flows out of the ground,
45:44 they had places that you know the . That's where the burning bush and
45:48 came from. They just, there's always there's always oil coming out
45:53 the ground there in some places. that's where it was. And
45:56 of course, another place was they out in the like they produce the
46:01 from from whale lard, and, and that was pretty good oil.
46:06 it's an expensive thing on a beautiful of I got to tell you,
46:12 know, I think Wales air just . And it really hurts my soul
46:17 I see people killing and and way need the oil like we used to
46:24 it. But some people just absolutely thio eat whale meat. I'm not
46:28 why, but but if you like , I can imagine it's pretty
46:34 Okay, So then, uh, had, uh, production there in
46:41 and then in Russia. And uh, of course Rockefeller started wouldn't
46:46 up being eso. And in 18 the U. S. Geological Survey
46:54 in part for fear of oil Okay, so this is sort of
47:01 first realization of peak oil then in 82 the Institute of Mining Engineers estimated
47:11 , there was only 95 million more of oil left to produce on,
47:19 they were producing 25 million barrels per . So that meant in four years
47:27 would be no more oil left for entire world. And then in 1901
47:34 , Spindletop happened. And of oil flooded the U. S.
47:39 market and that caused problems. But , so I don't know if you're
47:44 this, but the fear of the of production being available disappearing just keeps
47:56 away. And the the ideas sometimes we have too much goes away,
48:05 , because what controls how much energy need, Folks, Many people are
48:13 . That's it. Population is the to everything. It's not what we
48:19 . It's how many of us do . And you can easily say of
48:25 100 people use a resource. Maybe too many are going to abuse
48:31 If a million people are using a , there are a lot of people
48:36 will abuse it. If there's eight people, there's very, very many
48:41 that will abuse it. And if going to be another two billion thio
48:47 the next 15 years or so it's to get. It's going to get
48:52 worse and there's there's nothing you can to change that unless we come up
48:58 bigger and better energy sources. so 1906 again another. Even though
49:07 was a flood here, the market . And then five years later,
49:12 an oil shortage and and it goes and on. And this thesis
49:17 Guevara 2000 and three. It was really good paper, and and I
49:22 to show all the way up to , but I don't think we need
49:26 , but you get the idea. , this idea of the fact that
49:31 might have produced our last drop of has always been in our minds,
49:37 it's never been a reality, and fact that we always think that the
49:43 is going to disappear has always been our mind. But in fact,
49:48 never become a reality, either. Ong's population keeps growing and that,
49:56 , if you think about biology, really hard to imagine that population growth
50:01 going to slow down anytime soon. , so here is what they came
50:10 with. And they had a red coming up in 2020. And this
50:16 prediction was in June of 2000 and . So as late as 2000 and
50:23 , it was predicted that we were toe reach peak oil. And,
50:27 , as we're all sitting here in middle of a pandemic online, we
50:34 that that didn't happen. And that's going to happen. And in a
50:41 , I'm glad. Uh, in ways, you know, I wish
50:45 could get more energy out of this with less of a carbon footprint.
50:51 , of course, again, like else, we can do that.
50:55 just have to put energy and time it. Okay. And here's this
51:01 kind of a couple of projections, I just like to show this real
51:08 . It's kind of complicated, in sense, but they have different
51:12 And of course, in one we won't reach peak oil until 2047
51:19 to this, and this also came and, uh, 2004,
51:25 uh and this was a little bit optimistic than this one. that had
51:30 oil in 2020. This one thought the worst case scenario, would be
51:35 26th and 2037 thin 2047. depending on on what we could do
51:42 it again, that didn't happen. it's probably not gonna happen. And
51:51 is also where the demand was. wasn't even as high a Z a
51:59 . Okay, so here is something growth in it. Here's the base
52:06 . This is from 2017, and it looks like it's panning out in
52:12 ability to produce more and more. know, at some point we will
52:15 a plateau, and so it's not to think about it. But
52:20 they're projecting well past 2035. And , of course, was before what
52:34 . Coven Cove. It is one . And what did Cova did?
52:38 dropped our demand from, uh, at these numbers here. We
52:44 uh we actually I think about a ago we had, like, 100
52:49 barrels a day in the world that being used. Now it's down around
52:54 something. So really, what's happening is we've gone from a state of
53:01 about peak oil versus which is But now we're worried about in the
53:09 what is peak demand? When is demand going to peak? And we
53:15 forever in the future, have more than we need thio toe actually
53:22 So that's kind of what's happening right . And this was made in
53:28 Uh, you know, we were seeing production go up. We're seeing
53:33 go up, and BP does a good job of putting these perspectives
53:41 And Exxon Mobil does 12 with a bit of a different flair. And
53:45 the rest of my slides, you're to see things going, um,
53:49 of up and down because, they're going to be from one company
53:53 another one because it's really hard to graphics that air the same every year
53:59 the same company. I don't know in pie diagrams, for example,
54:03 one of the best ways for people visually see some of these things.
54:08 I really like pie diagrams better than of these things. So well,
54:12 be showing you some pie diagrams here a minute. But But the thing
54:18 , is that we know how much produced. We know how much we
54:21 producing. We have an idea of much we're putting online. We have
54:27 towards what could cause our production to down. What could cause it to
54:31 up on At the same time, could do the same thing with
54:38 And so here is something from I. A. And when I
54:44 you your assignment, you might be on websites with E I.
54:49 But you might also want to look something with E A. And it's
54:55 a little bit inconvenient. I hate keep using that word, but the
54:59 States came up with the Energy Information that does a lot of this.
55:07 and of course, uh, the itself came up with the International Energy
55:14 , and they all have the same letters. The first one, the
55:18 one, is always a in the one, and the second one have
55:22 around. But in the U. . It's the Energy Information Administration,
55:25 is this one E. I. . And the other one is
55:29 the International Energy Agency okay. And here's Here's what they predicted a few
55:40 ago. Here's Ah, May 2015 they predicted that a a gut,
55:48 glut in oil would end right around in 2016, and it would start
55:55 prices go back up. Remember, started to get this separation. Here
56:02 production in the blue and this dark to black. I don't know what
56:07 looks like on your screen, but should be brown. But a gap
56:11 this side means overproduction. A gap this side and this side and that
56:20 means under production. So the price up in these places, and here
56:25 can see in the bar diagram to of help you here. We're producing
56:29 much here. We're producing too little here. Everybody see that and trust
56:35 when it's close, something like a can cause prices to go up because
56:40 slows down the ships from moving the or other things like that. Or
56:44 have to shut in wells again. because this is millions of barrels a
56:52 . This isn't per year. This every day. We have to get
56:55 to refineries and to markets. And here is Ah, projection in
57:06 And the the glut gap that they for here just kept going on and
57:15 . Did it happen there? And the projection. They're thinking it's gonna
57:19 here. And we did have higher for a while. Went up a
57:26 bit, but now I can't see myself here because I have toe close
57:33 folks out here. Let me see I can get control of my cursor
57:41 . Wow. Okay, you can the forecast. Now, look what's
57:47 now. Ah, this is for . And so they're kind of forecasting
57:56 it's going to get up the demands to get up past 100 million barrels
58:02 day. But we know now it's there, Right? This is This
58:07 just in December 18, they came with this, okay? And so
58:15 the previous trend line. But here's gonna happen now and take a good
58:21 at this because this is really We have We have a little bit
58:28 red in here. We have a bit of red over there, which
58:32 saw in the last chart, That finally ended. But what What's happening
58:45 ? Right in this area, drawing stock. So you would think that
58:50 be a press rebound? We haven't seen that yet, but that's next
58:54 . Exactly. And it hasn't come , but and I don't know if
58:59 gonna happen. Exactly. Ah, this at this point, it's probably
59:05 gonna happen here, But at some in time, we've shut in all
59:10 wells. Uh, oil companies have off a lot of people.
59:19 production has dropped. Uh, one that might happen and is likely to
59:26 is demand. When it comes is going toe is going to accelerate
59:30 than the supply can. And I right now, a lot of damage
59:37 being done to our industry, and gonna be really hard to recover.
59:43 uh, something that would get us to this level for a long period
59:47 time. And that tells some people that's bad for the oil industry.
59:57 actual in actual fact, if our to produce produced an oversupply drops and
60:05 can't produce an oversupply, we're gonna an undersupply and we're going to see
60:10 coming back up, and it may be right here, but it certainly
60:14 gonna happen in the in the next . So, um, the way
60:19 were gone right now, if they figured out a way Thio get people
60:25 feel safer about getting on an And there are in there are filtration
60:31 and there's probably even mass. It drop out of the ceiling to do
60:36 . Um, I hope somebody's thinking it, but there could be ways
60:39 they could basically encapsulate all the people the plane with a limited amount of
60:46 and keep the the potential spread of down when people are on airplanes and
60:52 would feel a little bit safer in little bit happier about being able to
60:56 around. I certainly would like to overseas as soon as possible myself and
61:02 think a lot of people are uh really just can't wait to get
61:07 on that airplane. And that will a big impact, too.
61:16 So getting back to it, here's of the things that happens. The
61:22 curves in mostly unconventional wells. Look lot like this, and within one
61:30 , 69% of the production has So to keep the production up,
61:34 have to keep drilling and you have keep drilling. And one thing that
61:37 do know is happening is a lot the sweet spots are getting drilled up
61:42 many of the unconventional is that we operating today. Not all of
61:47 of course, and there certainly reserves there to get. But the the
61:52 and easy access thio ah, lot fields is starting to get a little
61:58 tighter if none of this other stuff happening, but because lot of drilling
62:05 stopped, Uh, when you have curves like this, you have to
62:09 drilling and drilling and drilling to keep cash flow going and going,
62:15 and it's And that's actually created a of jobs for engineers that actually design
62:22 and companies, steel companies that produce steel thio, Uh, on also
62:30 supplies for liners and stuff like So a lot of things are being
62:34 , and because all of that is put on a table, so to
62:39 , it's not going to, when it was when it was delayed
62:44 a little bit. I don't know you remember that flip that I showed
62:48 a few slides back when production was for a little bit. And then
62:54 started to get better and people came and started drilling mawr and we started
62:58 mawr again on we had a little of a surge there for a while
63:02 the price of oil got over $60 barrel, and we were able to
63:07 that relatively quickly because the depth of damage to our industry was not a
63:13 . A zit is right now. what? What is what is going
63:18 actually help force a, um a production of in a in a and
63:30 need and a reduced supply of oil fill that need is going to be
63:37 impactful the next time those lines cross we can't recover as fast as we
63:46 the last time we did this, too much damage has been done to
63:49 industry. And, uh, that well for people that might be looking
63:55 a job in the near future by way. Okay, um and this
64:00 just another one showing you some other curves and how you know we can
64:05 things to get the production up. the decline curves cumulatively, um,
64:11 sharp. And this is for things we have in the pocket. And
64:18 here we get back to this thing mentioned and somebody also pointed out
64:25 But when when Gore gave us his award winning lecture, uh,
64:34 actually mimic some lectures that I gave physical geology in the year 2000.
64:41 , because they're actually 2000 and two that's when I started teaching again.
64:46 of the things that he overlooked was this population growth curve. And,
64:52 , it's pretty scary, huh? you look at it and and,
64:59 course, dollars, we're going up everything. But if if you if
65:04 go back, I mean, when I was when I was,
65:13 when I was your age, there about four billion people on this
65:18 and now now we're getting Thio eight , and and it hasn't been that
65:27 . I mean, my lifetime is insignificant when you consider the growth rate
65:32 people on this planet, and but terms of numbers of people during the
65:39 I've been alive, that's been And I just I don't see that
65:43 a problem. And I think anytime talks about sustainability and again as
65:50 we need to mention this to But when you talk about sustainability,
65:56 , if someone doesn't mention population and a really touchy subject, you
66:03 no one wants to be told you have more Children, And, uh
66:07 I don't know how that will ever . That will be pretty draconian.
66:11 , uh, But until the world that we can't just keep reproducing at
66:18 rate we are, uh, it's to be a serious problem. And
66:23 the other issues of sustainability are really compared to population. And one of
66:29 most frightening things for me to think is agriculture. And that's another thing
66:37 people that are worried about sustainability because have this attitude that we can grow
66:47 . Um, say we go to billion people. When you have more
66:55 living on the planet, you have have more concentrated agricultural places.
67:04 that then have to transport those And a lot of wasted happens when
67:10 have to do that. Now you to the personal level. People can
67:14 their own vegetables, and if that , that will help a lot.
67:19 the bigger and larger and over more our cities get, the more likely
67:28 gonna have these centers of population that to be fed by massive farm systems
67:34 in themselves create more waste and a carbon footprint than people want. So
67:42 will never be really addressed until population is addressed. And it's a horrible
67:48 to say. It's a horrible thing think, because back here when I
67:52 growing up in high school and reading 1984 the idea of people controlling something
67:59 that was horrific. But now that over here and in my lifetime,
68:04 number of people on the planet's Uh, there's very few people that
68:09 say that outside of our generations. , So population is the problem is
68:18 know, truth. Sorry, don't interrupt. Um, isn't it true
68:23 as countries nations, peoples become more that actually their population rate of change
68:30 way down, for example, Yes and no. And that's the
68:38 . The population is distributed in those . Um I mean, I know
68:44 you're saying, and people that go college tend to have less than 10
68:51 . And, uh and so I'm saying that Negative. There's nothing wrong
68:56 people having 10 Children if they but, uh, from a moral
69:02 , But when we think about it's a, um it's it's really
69:09 mean, this is 2000 and and, you know, we're already
69:13 here. We're we have skyrocketed and , you know, it's just
69:24 you know, disease. The spread disease is showing its ugly face right
69:29 more than anything. And that could a positive, unfortunately positive effect on
69:36 population control. Mm one. Just imagine if Ebola got into the
69:43 States with with nobody following the guidelines we were given, that would have
69:50 catastrophic, and it's a good thing didn't happen. And and there may
69:58 not be something as bad as but worse than co vid that comes
70:04 , and if we're not prepared for , it's going to be. It
70:07 also do one of these things But even when we do this,
70:12 know, we're still talking about a of people, you know, Here's
70:17 and we're right. We're right at billion right now. So we're not
70:23 off like this yet. And eso still on the red curve, as
70:28 as I can tell. And, , it is, you know,
70:34 is that way. It has natural and competition and disease. And,
70:41 , competition between species and disease often what ends up controlling populations. But
70:48 think, uh, we are very clever species, especially the people
70:54 this classroom, and we can solve lot of problems. Ah, that
71:01 us in the short term. But the long term, we may be
71:05 more significant problems than we realize. here's something about agriculture, and it
71:12 about a third of entropy Anthropogenic co footprint. When I first put this
71:19 back in 2012, people thought I crazy and a little bit I thought
71:24 was kind of crazy to about but, um, it makes a
71:30 of sense, but it's part of carbon budget that a lot of people
71:34 no attention to. Um, you sue oil companies, but you can't
71:39 farmers. That's a political no, , but and this is something else
71:46 I found really interesting when the BP spill happened. Ah, and we
71:52 hearing, uh, people from M t. And other very well known
71:57 make statements. It was obvious that of them didn't realize what a natural
72:03 waas or that there were natural seats that. There was a lot of
72:11 that naturally seeps in the Gulf of without anybody ever drilling an oil
72:19 And part of the reason is, time organic material is produced. And
72:27 glad, Uh, Dr Maddox is listening to me because I won't
72:31 This is complicated, as she would go through a couple of chemical cycles
72:38 explain it. But the nuts and of it are whenever whenever you turn
72:43 soil over, you re you release 202 and and of course, sometimes
72:52 bury it when you overturn it. at the same time, you're releasing
72:57 two and 02 in the atmosphere. also transpiration releases water from these
73:06 What is the number one greenhouse Uh, Co two, of
73:10 is the one way seem Thio, think rightfully focus on it. But
73:16 it's not the only greenhouse gas to worried about. And, um,
73:22 the more feels that we have to like this, the more we're going
73:26 be releasing just to keep the population . And, uh, have any
73:31 you ever driven by a cabbage Ah, a couple of weeks after
73:39 time. You know, in Texas don't have these things. But in
73:48 , where we have lots of what call truck farms that have vegetables and
73:52 , you know, other than corn wheat Ah, One of the things
73:57 you notice, uh, in a of the vegetable fields is,
74:02 the stench of eso to sulfur And of course, that means everything's
74:09 . And when everything rots, what the bacteria producing and emitting into the
74:15 ? Besides just sulfur dioxide, they're a lot of CO two and methane
74:25 you can't smell, but if you smell the s 02 you can be
74:30 assured that a lot of methane is put into the atmosphere at that point
74:35 time. And so a lot of don't think about this And then,
74:40 these folks at MIT, Ah, of them did not appear to realize
74:46 just algae, all those phytoplankton And now a lot of them we
74:53 call algae. We call them cyanobacteria things like that because we've reclassified
75:01 But all of the phytoplankton that dies ends up on the ocean floor starts
75:07 rot, and it on the surface to produce Methane and CO two,
75:14 surface of the ocean and stuff in ocean column. A zit rots,
75:20 there are places offshore uh, the River, where effluent with our fertilizer
75:29 offshore creates incredible blooms in the death all those fighter plankton have actually created
75:36 zones out in the Gulf of where absolutely nothing can live because,
75:43 , oxygen's depleted. And you just these, uh, co two
75:49 uh, anaerobic bacteria, uh, things. And so agriculture is not
75:56 small thing. Uh, 30% of footprint is a significant amount of our
76:06 . Okay, So that's imagine what besides burning hydrocarbons started with the Industrial
76:24 . Large scale in mining. Yeah, we did that. But
76:32 were burning hydrocarbons we worry about you know, we do release a
76:36 of methane, but a lot of we flare it. So when we
76:40 hydrocarbons, you know, when we're energy, we way create co two
76:49 , in the production part of But also in the utilization of
76:52 Uh, you know, when we're it in our cars and trucks and
76:57 , we're putting co two in the , But around 18. 49 you
77:02 , we started. We got trains stuff like that, right? And
77:06 we're burning coal were burning wood. building plants that have machines, steam
77:14 . Ah, but once we we started making these things primitive tractors
77:19 stuff like that. What? What did mankind do right around 18.
77:25 . And, um, this isn't first time they did it, but
77:28 did it really start getting expansive? mean, in 1949 it did.
77:34 one other thing that actually has to with a greenhouse gas. Yeah,
77:44 this is this is what I mean paying attention to data. Uh
77:51 Industrial farming, not farming like raising . Well, industrial farming,
77:59 But, um, here's what Uh, if you pulled your slides
78:05 , you would have had the I'm glad you didn't pull it
78:08 but both McCann mechanized agriculture and irrigation the same time. And so this
78:15 mechanized agriculture is doing this kind of . Of course it took It took
78:21 about the 19 hundreds for that to take off. But at the same
78:26 , we also started this thing called . And most of this really
78:32 uh, in the 20th century, it was getting started in and
78:39 uh and of course, in the twenties and thirties, we started building
78:44 of dams and started impounding water Um, one of things that ah
78:52 of scientists have said is that, well, let me explain this before
79:01 get to that. Ah, H 20 is probably one of the
79:10 important greenhouse gasses. But after I , it's groundwater is the second largest
79:16 . And what did we start Uh, in the industrial revolution was
79:22 started to put pipes in the ground produce water to irrigate and thio We
79:29 these little what do you call Tall, Lonesome Zor. You
79:34 these windmills air out in Texas all the place and pulling water out of
79:41 out of the subsurface and getting into surface atmosphere, reservoir of water.
79:49 , uh so that's kind of kind what started to happen in this empowerment
79:53 started in the 19 hundreds. And mechanization, uh, in the 19
79:59 and 19 thirties in farming got to really big. And so now a
80:05 of it. We looked at mechanization we look at oil, but the
80:09 of oil really didn't start around 1900 . So so a lot of this
80:14 a to the same time that were hydrocarbons. We also started doing mawr
80:21 agriculture in the form of irrigation by taking water out of the ground and
80:28 water on the ground. In other , keeping more of it in the
80:33 atmosphere, environment. And what does do when you have more water on
80:38 surface? More fresh water on the . What does that do to the
80:44 overall amount of water vapor in the ? It operates it. It raises
80:53 . In other words, we get . We get mawr greenhouse gas.
81:00 , uh, Due to all that water that we've pulled out of the
81:04 , it's been sequestered in the ground groundwater. Now we've pulled it
81:09 Not only that, when it uh, to prevent flooding and to
81:15 water for water sources for drinking sources irrigation we've been pounded rivers so less
81:22 it to the ocean. We have large broad fresh water masses on the
81:29 . Uh, that evaporate quicker. water evaporates quicker than salt water that
81:34 are used to drain to the ocean permeate back down into the ground.
81:42 , and so we, uh, weren't really keeping it on the
81:45 and we didn't keep it in that . You go to the oceans.
81:49 plenty of water in the oceans, it's saltwater, and it doesn't evaporate
81:53 quickly. And so overall, the of water to the atmosphere in terms
82:02 absolute ah, amounts of water vapor droplets. Unfortunately, I've been looking
82:12 years, and you might wanna But I haven't seen very many studies
82:17 anything other than we know. This an important area to study, but
82:22 need to do more, study on . And does it bother you that
82:28 that the number one greenhouse gas on planet is water? It's not CO
82:37 , and yet we're not studying and and I don't understand that at
82:45 . But maybe maybe when you do little exercise I give you maybe
82:50 we'll find some information I haven't been to find. Nobody can see the
82:54 . That's why nobody can what to earth. Yeah, you can't do
82:59 either, can you? And of course, if you can't see
83:04 Earth and who's going to fund But, uh, but anyway,
83:09 in the next slide. Whether is been and like, we will always
83:12 the number one greenhouse gas on this , and the concentration could be over
83:17 times that of CO two. Most say what is controlled by the temperature
83:23 water does not controlled temperature, and is in part true, of
83:29 because as temperature goes up. it can, uh, air can
83:35 more water vapor on when temperature goes and holds less water vapor. So
83:41 does control it. However, imagine in a desert and, uh,
83:48 going up. But what's the relative ? It's zero or two or 25
83:54 some low number. Um, so water vapor is always at 100% it's
84:02 . That is not the absolute Temperature is not the absolute control of
84:06 much water vapor we have in the . Availability of what our baby vapor
84:12 also important. And the more fresh we have in surface lakes and the
84:17 freshwater we pull out of the ground throw into the atmosphere when we
84:23 you know, most of time when irrigate, most of that water goes
84:26 the atmosphere, and, of then it rains. But the point
84:30 trying to make is that what our is in that water cycle that we
84:36 the surface and atmosphere what air volume nobody has figured out a way to
84:42 out how much that's increasing. Now are doing some of that with
84:46 and they're starting to realize that it's going up. But no one has
84:52 enough information as far as I can to make a real definitive thing.
84:56 again, I think if you stop think, you know, When did
85:02 problem of climate change really start? it really start when we started producing
85:08 of oil and gas? Or did really start when we started lots of
85:12 and gas and irrigation and mechanized You know what are what are all
85:19 factors? One of the worst things could do with seismic or geological data
85:25 focused on one element. One variable there's 56 or seven that have a
85:32 and in some cases, a major , and the outcomes of what those
85:38 air doing, whether they're going up down. And we know what our
85:42 ah is the number one greenhouse gas this planet always has been, and
85:48 not studying it. Nobody is really studying it right now. As far
85:52 I can tell him. I'm sure at least two places in the world
85:56 have not 10 that really are looking it. But the data and the
86:00 is not getting out into the Okay, So because both of these
86:06 required and and I'm I know it like I'm on a soapbox, but
86:10 not really trying to say this is thing we need to work on.
86:14 I'm saying that this is something that could have a major impact, and
86:19 are ignoring it. And just, ignoring the temperature increase or work,
86:28 , climate change itself to ignore that a risky thing. And to ignore
86:34 impacts or the variables that air causing to happen is very risky as
86:40 Because if we don't look at all variables, we may try to fix
86:45 problem focused on one variable when it out that variable is not as important
86:51 we thought, it really waas. for all of these things, you
86:55 find out that that, um co going up does correlate with temperature.
87:01 are vapor going up does correlate with . Ah, temperature going up does
87:09 with mechanized agriculture. And but correlation not equal the cause. And so
87:17 have to be very careful about how evaluate decent Okay, so let's take
87:23 break. Now, Before we get this next section, it's been almost
87:28 hour and a half. And if can figure out how toe work these
87:33 on this, uh, I've just this share. Everybody is still
87:57 Mhm. You're all there. Now I need to figure out where
88:07 recorder went. Can you guys hear ? Yes. Yeah, Okay.
88:31 , mhm. Let me see if could do something here. Okay?
88:55 . There we go. I had stop sharing. I couldn't pause
89:00 And now I'm gonna pause. Can . Okay, This isn't too
89:07 but you have to figure it And that's the wrong. That's the
89:17 lecture. Mhm. Okay, now need to share my screen again.
89:39 everybody. See that? Yes. , so how many? How much
89:45 do we need and what are the ? So, uh, we know
89:52 change is an issue. We know is an issue we know demands an
89:57 . Right now, supply doesn't seem be an issue at all, but
90:04 not going to stay the same And so what we're gonna look at
90:08 is is you know, really, much energy does the planet need?
90:14 when asking that question or pondering that , we also need to think about
90:19 fact that, um, with the population is still really going up
90:31 significant. It's almost log rhythmic. , So what I thought we would
90:41 on here is, uh, in of energy consumption in exit. Jules
90:47 I put this down here because normally I give this lecture, I tell
90:52 I don't know what an exit Jewell , but I know it's a lot
90:55 energy, but I put this on so that I consumed, almost like
90:59 know what I'm talking about. It's terawatt hours. And if we look
91:09 the globe at, um, I've shrunk this diagram down because it had
91:14 lot more countries on it, but thought, Ah, if I put
91:22 top 10 or so, that would good enough, and I brought the
91:25 back in so you can see right that, um, China is actually
91:34 biggest user of energy right now. , you know, 20 years
91:39 it was not 20 years ago. was not developed as much as it
91:46 now, but it's population is definitely , and I think that addresses some
91:56 the some of our concerns about population and the fact that it's it is
92:03 very significant. Um, but here the US, um, our consumption
92:13 94.65 jewels. So exit Jules and can't really tell you how much that
92:23 , but it's a lot of And, uh, in liquid energy
92:27 only one form of the energy that use. And I probably use this
92:36 the first time I taught. Or the it looks like looking at the
92:41 copyright in 2005. This would have about the actually the 10th time I
92:47 , uh, freshman geology, cause used to teach at least twice a
92:57 . Now I only teach graduate and petroleum geology is an upper level
93:02 course. But this is a nice couple of pie diagrams you can see
93:10 . Petroleum's really big natural gas is . Coal is big nuclear powers,
93:18 all of renewal. Energy is 6% . What's significant about this renewable energy
93:26 Everybody goes. Oh, wow. know, we're gonna All we have
93:30 do is grow this and we'll be to replace all of that.
93:35 We can just We can just grow renewable energy and build enough renewable
93:41 We can replace all of this hydrocarbon energy source. Well, here they're
93:49 you they've only got 6%. But you think about it, 50% of
93:55 at this point in time was Biomass, which includes bio fuels,
94:04 high burns and it creates hydrocarbons. , creates. Excuse me. It
94:09 hydrocarbons, and it creates co So only 3% of all of this
94:19 in 2000 and one, which is this is supposed to have been
94:24 if you get something in 2005, will never have 2005 because we don't
94:28 what the numbers are for 2005 and takes them a year to figure out
94:33 , the year before that Waas. a lot of times, it's 2000
94:37 five. You may not be able get reald data, uh, any
94:42 than 2003, but in 2000 and . This was the situation as it
94:50 then. So, really, only third of the reno half of the
94:58 resource is or 3% of the total we need just in the United
95:04 Uh, is carbon neutral. so then we look the next
95:14 and this is we go through Okay, If you look back at
95:24 6% 11 years later, we're actually 2000 and one rather, uh,
95:36 years later, renewable energy has gone 6% to 10% in its attempt to
95:47 all of this. Okay. And , 46% less than half. So
95:57 doing better here. So out of 10% almost 5% of it is actually
96:11 a carbon footprint, and only a over 5% of it is carbon
96:17 And so, in 15 years we've from, let me put the laser
96:23 on here. In 15 years, gone from 3% to 5.4% carbon
96:33 which equals 2.4% increase, or a increase per year. Now,
96:45 let me just ask anyone in the . Do you feel like we're winning
96:50 war? Uh, to replace all this on. Just imagine how maney
96:58 farms, how maney solar farms, many dams, Um and so on
97:07 been built in those in those 15 not only in China and the United
97:15 , but all over the world. when when you hear people talk about
97:24 contribution of of those systems, they you often times not in how much
97:32 produced, but they talk about We have the capacity to provide all
97:40 electricity for that city. We have capacity to provide the electricity for these
97:46 cities or these three cities. But capacity is not what they can
97:52 usually with especially solar and wind because day and night. And because when
98:02 , the in the best case scenario producing at 30% is pretty much the
98:13 level they've been able to achieve up this point in time. So if
98:21 you were compared to a nuclear if if if nuclear reactors were like
98:30 and solar farms, then it would three nuclear reactors to produce the energy
98:37 comes out of one of them, and there's no way that that is
98:43 more expensive. And and it's also reason why, uh, as we're
98:52 this, we have to remember that when that capacity is not being
98:58 we have to have a backup. of course, natural gas is a
99:01 backup, and companies and power companies this. And so they've been building
99:08 lot of natural gas power plants to up the wind and the solar.
99:13 let me be clear about one I don't have anything against solar or
99:17 energy, but what I worry What I worry about is Theobald Illit
99:23 . To scale it up at the at which we want to scale it
99:27 . I don't I don't actually think even possible, but I think everybody's
99:32 to try to scale it up as as they can I think is well
99:38 the effort. The problem is that not being delivered, Uh, as
99:46 as we would like to see it , and, uh, when I've
99:51 public's talks about this, I always out that I'm neither for or against
99:58 sources. I'm actually, for all of energy, to be used in
100:03 responsible manner and to be used the way we can use them, given
100:09 capacity and the production rates that we . And that's what I think we
100:13 have to think about. Uh, in the oil industry. We still
100:17 to be grateful that there is a in a wind energy system because the
100:23 needs it. We also need to good that this thing over here,
100:29 natural gas, can produce the same of energy as coal and petroleum and
100:37 half the carbon footprint. Just imagine someone said all of a sudden you
100:42 reduce the carbon footprint by 50%. can do that with natural gas.
100:48 of the sneaky lies, though, things about petroleum and natural gas is
100:54 we still flare a lot and and still have a lot of what seemed
101:00 be minor leagues. But they uh, across the globe. And
101:06 that's the stewardship thing, the personal corporate responsibility that we need to try
101:12 do everything we can to make that footprint. Uh, that we have
101:20 petroleum and natural gas as small as to even further reduce the carbon footprint
101:27 oil and gas is actually creating. there's a lot of work we can
101:31 , and there's a lot of work could do with solar and wind.
101:34 the job is definitely not done, it won't be done for the next
101:39 years. I don't think if even , But, you know, we
101:42 have a major breakthrough. But at point in time, after looking at
101:47 numbers, I find it hard to that something like that could even happen
101:57 here I got to 2019. so from 2016 to 2019, we've
102:05 from 10% to 11% renewable, and listening to me right now and myself
102:13 well, we know that China and States have really been putting a lot
102:19 . And even the state of by the way, has been putting
102:21 lot into wind farms and solar energy this thing called hydro electric and take
102:28 look back here. Hydro electric was . It's it's now down to 22
102:38 of that 11% and of course is pie grows. Ah, One of
102:45 good things we're seeing is that biomass here has dropped to 43% of that
102:52 . So so we're getting getting a bit better about getting this.
102:58 uh, could anyone in the class me why anybody thinks that biofuels are
103:08 ? And why are they good Air? Pretty reliable, maybe.
103:19 , well, they are renewable, ? The key is for them is
103:26 do fall in the category of and they help people say that they
103:31 11% renewable energy. Um, but this renewable energy is not helping the
103:40 footprint at all. Does any, , does anybody in the class know
103:44 we started to do biomass things and and a lot of oil companies?
103:54 is this is kind of Ah, to me. I don't quite understand
103:58 , but if you produce bio you get carbon credits. If we
104:03 toe a carbon tax system, but air not saving on the carbon
104:11 Uh, the whole reason why biomass is being pushed, and they try
104:19 get it to have been trying to it back. Several oil companies,
104:23 saying they're going to be carbon zero they're going to go toe biofuels.
104:27 that's not just not going to be case. Uh, the whole reason
104:31 were doing this gets back to the part of our lecture because we thought
104:38 oil was a really thing that we going to run out of oil.
104:42 thought, Well, we have a way to create hydrocarbons, and it's
104:50 this biomass production. The recycling stuff , uh, could help the carbon
104:57 . I'm not sure, but these ones definitely do not. Burning wood
105:01 help at all. Biofuels are the way. Putting alcohol in your gasoline
105:07 reduce the amount of co two. so we have, uh, riel
105:15 with this, uh, in terms if peak oil isn't gonna happen.
105:21 absolutely no reason to really focus on or growing having farms of growing massive
105:28 of algae that, by the while the algae is growing that we're
105:32 to convert to oil is gonna have carbon footprint converting algae to hydrocarbons that
105:39 can use this fuel will create a footprint And then when we actually burn
105:44 hydrocarbons, they will create a So it really, uh it makes
105:50 no sense to me unless anybody else having ideas. But in the last
105:55 years, we've gone from that 5.4% 6.27% co two neutral, which is
106:05 0.87 increase. And it's almost a of a percent Uh huh, per
106:14 over over that period of time. I'm not sure, but the math
106:18 look right. Uh huh. It be, um it should be a
106:24 of the 0.87 So I guess I excited about my calculator last night,
106:31 something wrong, but I think it's be a little bit less than
106:35 But again, the problem is is as we put a lot of
106:41 money and effort into this, which I agree is something we need to
106:47 . Uh, we're still not winning war against this, And I think
106:56 reason why this one up is per we've We've gone up a little
107:02 Mawr. Ah. Then we were the previous years. Okay? And
107:10 because we've been investing more money. here is, uh, one of
107:16 projected energy supplies. One vision and can see here around 2020. Oil
107:23 going to drop off. And I the dark green is heavy. Oil
107:28 natural gas was going to drop Coal is almost completely disappeared, so
107:33 is all completely wrong. This was in 1997. Yeah, solar,
107:44 and geothermal just are not there. ? They might be here, but
107:50 come back to 2020. They're still small, but it started before
107:56 And the growth rate is really, small. I don't know how they're
107:59 to get this kind of expansive growth that they expect. Hydro electric,
108:05 know, there's only so many So many rivers that weaken dam
108:11 and, uh, damming up rivers also not an environmentally or or landscape
108:19 let's see lakes or nice. But your house happens to be where the
108:23 is now, it's not so nice the people where where they flood millions
108:28 acres of land and people happen to cities in the middle of those
108:34 So that's a different thing. A power. Um, a scary and
108:43 dangerous as it is and the fact we still don't know how to
108:49 safely store a lot of the Ah, as faras carbon footprint.
108:57 could produce as much energy as we if we if we went to it
109:03 it would have a zero carbon So in my mind of anything really
109:09 , uh, oil, natural gas coal combined, it's going to be
109:14 power. And and that's just based the technology that we have today.
109:20 think these things we're going to continue grow. But I don't see this
109:25 expansion Ah, in the near Because if if because really what we've
109:34 is we've put ourselves somewhere around and on the curve, and we're not
109:40 it expand like that. And what see here, here, we've got
109:48 know, you've only got, 5.4% going to 6.27% neutral,
109:58 uh, and that just isn't that in three years. Okay? And
110:06 here's another. Another way of looking it. And And this is talking
110:12 primary energy. Not This is an . This isn't, um, power
110:17 . Power generation or producing electricity is one source, But you can see
110:26 , um, they have renewables, , at 20%. Okay, you
110:33 see here. Says 2035. The actually are higher than that, but
110:41 carbon footprint is not getting a benefit the renewables, and it's only half
110:48 that. And we are up here 11% already at 2020 we're up in
110:55 , but we aren't getting that full of the renewables. In other
110:59 reducing this a T expense of this that we're only getting half of that
111:06 because biomass is still close to We can see that natural gas is
111:12 up. Cole, Um, and later diagrams is going to creator,
111:18 an oil still hasn't fallen down like . And this was done in
111:24 And, uh, here, you see. Uh, this is a
111:29 that just talks about power generation, is producing electricity. And you can
111:35 that, uh, for producing electricity is gonna is predicted to phase completely
111:42 cold, for some reason, is a major player. Natural gas has
111:48 bigger and stayed big. Nuclear has and stayed the same. But renewables
111:54 in here in high growth is falling . But again, as you can
111:59 , we're not Even if we go 2035 on here, we haven't completely
112:06 , uh, and again, only the renewables. Or let's let's say
112:11 60% of the renewables. We're gonna a zero carbon footprint. So this
112:17 is still gonna have to play a role in this because coal is
112:22 Uh, almost completely right now, though it was supposed to have a
112:27 boom, coal is almost completely Okay. And, uh, and
112:34 at, uh, liquids, the demand and growth you can see
112:40 . This was in 2017. We things were going to just keep going
112:45 . And does anybody know what the combust? It ISS Is anybody
112:58 What doesn't What doesn't combust but provides ? Don't know. Okay,
113:05 it Z okay, this is liquids . And so remember the,
113:19 power generation right here is purple. , but liquids air demanded for all
113:29 of other things, like powering the of buildings, industry ships,
113:35 trains, trucks and cars. More this is going to go to
113:40 But look at what they have here 27 is a projection of power and
113:46 is power. Generation equals electricity. renewables is still just a small part
113:55 that and only half the renewables, 60% of renewables are gonna be carbon
114:02 and they're still in terms of our demand for liquids, power is
114:08 There is that little thing right And the rest of it's going to
114:13 this. Now, if we, if we take cars and trucks off
114:19 road, we're going to need to more of this power. If we
114:24 to create more power to power the and trucks we're gonna have, we
114:33 have the renewables to do it. gonna have toe pump up. We've
114:37 the coal out, we're gonna have put in more oil. And there's
114:41 no way around it. I don't . I mean, you know,
114:45 you can imagine a world you but I don't see how you're going
114:49 eliminate oil with this kind of transport . that we're having. And during
114:56 let me point out to during the Cove in 19 thing, we found
115:02 that a lot of people are buying on Amazon, and all of that
115:05 being transported by by large trucks and trucks. Amazon is trying to go
115:14 , and, uh, that's gonna a major effort to And I
115:18 ah, with Tesla, we've seen with battery production keeping up with car
115:26 . And I think when we get bigger trucks and bigger, bigger cars
115:30 more trucks and more cars, we're have more issues with getting the materials
115:34 rapid battery production. But maybe we . But nevertheless, if we
115:39 we take liquids out of this. , we're gonna have to put more
115:44 in the power mix because renewables is not going to handle the job for
115:50 generation. Okay, And and um, another thing, um,
116:01 of course, I asked a question non combusted. Non combusted. Use
116:05 liquids is gonna be plastics. Things plastics. In other words, you're
116:12 burning it, but you're using the , so it's part of the liquid
116:16 and because natural gas is 50 to co two emissions less compared to other
116:31 , like oil and definitely coal, isn't a liquid. Um, this
116:37 ah really important thing for people to if, um, one of our
116:47 guys, it now works with the . S. Government. Um
116:54 on such issues, he said uh, just switching a lot of
116:58 power plants in the United States a years ago from from coal to natural
117:05 made us reduce our carbon footprint by than the Paris Accord it was asking
117:12 us to do. It's changed a bit since then because it's kind of
117:15 out. But when they first started coal power plants with CO two,
117:21 carbon footprint coming from the United States dropped over like a two year
117:28 And, of course, with less being burned right now it's it's dropped
117:32 significantly as well. Okay, so think what I'm trying the point I'm
117:38 to get across to you is that spite of all of our good
117:47 this is not growing fast enough in shape or form to replace all of
117:57 demand for liquids because, as this predicted, this has already taken into
118:08 the contribution here from renewables because most where these renewables go hydro electric,
118:17 and when are all going into power , they are 100% into power
118:23 and so is geothermal, for the part. So like it or
118:33 that's the way it ISS, and the industry that you're in is going
118:39 need to continue to provide. These is for our economies to even
118:47 much less grow. Okay, so take another look at just a little
118:55 of detail, because I think it's , because people don't realize this because
118:59 no one looks at this kind of but trying to get CO two free
119:04 greener. What do we have? have nuclear, which a lot of
119:09 think is a no no. We hydro electric. Hydro electric has two
119:16 . One is, um it creates need places to go skiing,
119:22 boating and skiing and fishing and But it is rough on the cities
119:27 it drowns, so you can't keep hydroelectric plants. But it also depends
119:33 a lot of hydro electric generation throughout world depends on snowfall and rainfall,
119:42 there have been serious issues there. , geothermal is kind of untapped,
119:49 it's very expensive from what I Ah, wind, we're gonna look
119:56 couple of charts on, I'll point . There was a year when,
120:01 , the wind in Europe was was low in general overall for a whole
120:07 that I think there, there, kept their output, their actual production
120:14 was consumed. The amount of electricity were able to generate was like 10%
120:18 their capacity. And that was a bad year for wind and then then
120:24 . If you have lots of cloud , that's going to be a
120:28 Of course, with climate change, probably will have more cloud cover.
120:35 , uh, and that could be issue there. And, of
120:39 night night, something we can't get off and and nuclear again. We're
120:46 still frightened of it because we can catastrophic problems with nuclear reactors and
120:54 we don't have many of them. when we have them, they're
120:58 and we still have an issue with of the waste. And I like
121:04 show this to you guys because 2019 the last you can get it.
121:08 came out in early 2020 and lot of people, for some
121:16 still think the United States is doing for for all of this alternate
121:23 Uh, does anybody want to know company owned the biggest solar photovoltaic,
121:33 , manufacturing firm in the world in . Anybody know the answer to that
121:48 ? We want to take a It's excuse me when the Northern Gas
121:57 Yes, it Wasit was mobile They sold it because they weren't making
122:03 money at that point in time. probably wish they had it back,
122:09 But the the attitude that oil companies Americans haven't been working on this is
122:18 flat out wrong in toe witness that going to show you some things.
122:25 lot of people think France has always the number one producer of nuclear energy
122:31 100% of their power generation and that's power generation. Not all of their
122:36 , you know, people say Francis nuclear. That's their power generation remember
122:43 this diagram there's power generation, This is everything else we need liquids
122:50 . Okay, Okay. So and China was not really that large.
122:59 you can see here that the S. Um I'm trying to think
123:06 when this this was over a few , the US has gone up plus
123:14 . I think this is over. last year, we've gone up 4.1
123:18 hours, which is 1, 277.78 of of an exit. Jewell eso
123:30 the biggest producer nuclear power, which a lot of people. It's probably
123:35 surprise about this. 10 years China would have been nothing. You
123:39 look at this just a year ago two years ago. Um, they
123:44 added 120 Terra Watts in the last years. I wish I don't remember
123:50 what my cut off was. Now I'm doing this, but might have
123:52 2017, and that's what it It was since 2016. There it
124:00 . Okay, So in three in three years, the United States
124:08 gone up 4.1 terawatt hours Francis China has has almost doubled what it
124:17 and the Russian Federation's grown a little . South Korea's dropped off.
124:26 and this is about 10% of the consumption, and I put not
124:31 Consumption is what we're using. And not like wind and solar, which
124:38 advertised by capacity. Okay, so we go with solar panels.
124:46 at one point in time, the . S. Was number one.
124:49 we're only number two since 2016. can see that in gigawatts, which
124:58 not the same thing as Terra It's much smaller than that. It's
125:02 lot smaller than a terawatt. we, uh, China has gone
125:07 74. We've dropped a little Japan's pretty much stayed the same.
125:14 again for advertising reasons. Solar people tell you what their production is because
125:21 doesn't sound very impressive. What sounds is the capacity and the capacity,
125:31 , is really only a small part Excuse me. Production is only 30%
125:39 best of whatever this capacity is, overall it provides 3% to total power
125:47 globally. You go back again to chart there is power generation. It
125:53 3% of this bar right here. percent okay. And I won't go
126:04 to that again. I promise. , then. When you look at
126:11 , uh, China is up to . That was gigawatts. This is
126:18 again. This is capacity. It's production. They're only producing a third
126:23 this. They're only producing a third this Onley producing a third of
126:28 And look at how small. That is 11.9 gigawatts compared to 204.7
126:40 And 25% of this for the S. Is produced in Texas,
126:46 here in Texas. But again, is just that little purple bar of
126:51 generation that it's making a contribution to the United States. Okay,
126:59 and here I put put this out , too. But this is also
127:03 for solar. Okay. And geothermal. I had some different diagrams
127:10 you, so I thought I would that here's 2016. For that,
127:15 can see the United States was the , then in the United States is
127:19 biggest now. And, uh, by a long shot and the Philippines
127:27 have started Thio drop off a little They've raised from that time. But
127:34 , uh, has actually jumped ahead them in, uh, in power
127:41 for for 2019. So I don't if I have to keep reiterating
127:51 but again, as much energy everyone in the world is putting into
127:57 . I applaud it. Please Or, um, does it mean
128:02 end of the oil industry? If look at this chart, I don't
128:09 how, and maybe one of my for you for this report is for
128:13 to tell me how. How is much energy? If this was replaced
128:25 and and it's not by renewables, is it going to get rid of
128:37 of this liquid production demand? maybe maybe I'm being Ah, e
128:47 from looking at the data. It to me that there's a miss connect
128:52 the threat of alternates to the oil and all. I'm gonna help.
128:58 ahead. Certainly just the question. is the big gap between the capacity
129:03 the production and the wind and solar , that's real simple and wind.
129:10 , for it to reach full The winds have to be about 25
129:14 all the time and maybe a little less than that. But I believe
129:20 , you know, it's some, know, pretty different. Pretty good
129:23 . It might be only 15, it's some fixed number. Ah,
129:28 working at 100%. If it gets a certain wind speed, I think
129:34 they change the angle of the blades out so they don't you know,
129:38 don't destroy the windmill and but but , But the wind has to blow
129:44 a certain velocity all the time for to get 100% capacity. So that's
129:51 case for for wind energy. um, one of the things that
129:59 in Europe and I think it was and we haven't gotten the slide
130:03 but but the wind energy was off year because they didn't have a lot
130:09 wind in the country. Okay? I guess people weren't drinking a lot
130:17 beer and eating a lot of beans you're something but the wind was
130:22 Okay, so that that had a negative impact on it. Then we
130:28 at the solar if you have this capacity, uh, depends on where
130:36 are relative to the amount of sunlight have over the course of the whole
130:43 . You're obviously going to get more energy, uh, in,
130:50 in places close to the equator, places farther away from the equator.
130:56 night and day, if you cut , it 50 50. Uh,
131:01 gonna lose half of your capacity just night and day. Then you're gonna
131:05 capacity, do thio dust storms, and other things like that. And
131:13 the most that they normally can produce 30%. And the There's also a
131:23 number of maintenance things that actually, , cause them to have to shut
131:27 things down every now and then, I know nothing about. So I'm
131:30 going to try to explain that. I know maintenance has something to do
131:33 it as well. I just looked that wind turbine blades lost 10 to
131:39 years, and they're made out of fiber, so it kind of seems
131:42 of counter productive, okay? And also cost a lot of money on
131:49 , in the first wave of windmills went up in the United States.
131:54 it was it was a really good to do to see if if we
131:56 get this upscale. But it's still still not scalable to what we need
132:02 our overall energy needs. One advantage we have with power generation is
132:08 um if you do have an electrical , the amount of waste of energy
132:14 an electrical car is less than the of waste energy when you're burning
132:19 So the overall like if everything was . Um, if we go back
132:25 this, if everything was electric, all of these Ah, I don't
132:33 how we're going to do ships I don't know how we're gonna do
132:36 plane's electric, but if we this would be a little bit thinner
132:41 , but it would all have to into power generation. But we're
132:44 you know, we're still way way of getting the power generation. We
132:50 to power these cars and these trucks these ships, trains and planes.
132:56 can't replace plastics because they're gonna be valuable to us then than anything
133:01 Probably. And some of the industrial , you know, in the in
133:06 running buildings. Like I think buildings primarily diesel generators and in and,
133:16 know, you get if you if have storms or earthquakes or things like
133:21 , it can disrupt even diesel But But sometimes they're the only thing
133:26 we have to back up. All other power sources of power lines get
133:31 down. For example, if if a disaster, uh, hurricane disaster
133:37 the University of Houston right now, building on campus has a power back
133:41 its diesel. And and they did when Alison came in back in
133:48 and one. I believe it. or maybe 2002. Okay, so
133:58 hard to get charts like this, it's hard to get them. This
134:01 the last one that I got, , that I could actually trust the
134:07 because people ah, try to add much to the to the hydrocarbon ones
134:15 take too much too much of the out of the other ones because they
134:18 the subsidized costs and stuff like that it. But, uh, in
134:24 of producing Mila Watts per hour. is what the numbers were then.
134:28 think these numbers are a lot better , but these numbers are a lot
134:33 , too over across the board, in general, uh, one of
134:39 cheapest things. And it has half carbon footprint of the other liquids that's
134:48 gas. And, uh, so trying to defend all of these
134:55 which which they probably all need a bit of defense. But I think
135:01 is the bargain basement thing to get to the world with the smallest carbon
135:07 . And that's something we can do if we wanted to, uh,
135:14 well, not exactly overnight, but could do it a lot quicker than
135:18 turning every car into, um, operated car and truck to that's that's
135:26 to taken awful lot of investment in , Aziz, much as we want
135:30 , I mean, if that's all want, it's still going to take
135:35 long time to get there, and is another thing, and this is
135:42 is just sources for power generation, again is just that little purple line
135:48 the overall need. for Ah, liquids. Excuse me. And then
136:01 What we see here is that when look at hydro electric Ah, that's
136:10 be one of the cheapest things as as we have rain. And then
136:15 marine title things reason we haven't built for hydro electric is because they're very
136:20 and they actually do disrupt the environment lot. And here's solar energy
136:29 which is concentrated solar power. And is the photo photovoltaics. The cost
136:35 that and this is kind of like up water with sunlight. Or one
136:43 you could do this is you could lenses and you can concentrate the energy
136:49 water and make a steam engine that , and these were the other
136:55 So in summary, uh, I'd to say that population growth is becoming
137:03 single most critical issue in terms of . And, uh, I do
137:10 that as the world gets more we will we will, uh,
137:16 control our population little better. That happened in China, and also,
137:22 have been saying this since I was high school and and the population has
137:29 than doubled since then. And so know waken hope these things happen.
137:37 I think if we don't address the issue, I think we're definitely making
137:43 risky mistake's, uh, energy demand still growing, and as population goes
137:49 , it will continue to grow. no way to stop that. The
137:54 thing we can do has changed the . So I think we need
138:01 as individuals support anything that helps alternate that are carbon free on at the
138:08 time, realized the, uh, the significant amount of energy required.
138:18 , on this planet is going to that that we keep producing liquid energy
138:26 to support the growth of our population the GPS of all these different companies
138:35 countries that we have across the Uh, and another thing to think
138:41 is that even even as we go mawr carbon free wind and solar type
138:52 ah, you know they need so they're always going to need some
138:56 of hydrocarbon backup, whether it's diesel whether it's natural gas or something like
139:03 . But most of the backup is power and or ah, steam generation
139:10 natural gas power plants. And another that's really important is, you
139:18 in terms of the carbon footprint, a lot of people have ignored.
139:23 I can tell you from my search last night that since last year it's
139:29 a lot. There's more about, this issue in terms of,
139:37 the carbon footprint coming off of And when I use this word
139:44 I have to be careful using this word, which is why I put
139:47 in red. Sometimes people talk about , uh, agriculture. Is everybody
139:55 a garden in their backyard? and even if you take a place
140:01 New York City and you have people little verandas, they may have tomato
140:07 growing on their porch. And, course, those produced CO two to
140:13 , uh, the amount of waste there is probably near zero. So
140:18 what some people talk about distributed food . But the way when I use
140:23 word in this sentence, I mean Aziz, we have larger and larger
140:29 areas. We're gonna have toe have and mawr of these, uh,
140:36 that are very large that have to massive amounts of, um produce and
140:46 amounts of presumably meets and, and also get that to the
140:55 There's gonna be a lot more The more you have to do,
141:00 , when you have to build large , there's efficiency in terms of
141:05 But there is, ah, lack efficiency, apparently in terms off.
141:11 I didn't make this up. This what I read in terms off,
141:15 the the the food to the source then the source to the restaurants and
141:21 the restaurants actually into your mouth. of the things people are doing these
141:26 , which I think have been extremely , is they've been, uh,
141:33 , you know, food banks that take food from restaurants before it goes
141:38 expiration dates and actually donated it to that needed. I think things like
141:43 will help this a lot, but me, distributed food sources is large
141:49 away from the city that have to it to the city, which,
141:52 the way, takes more hydrocarbons the our power situation is at this point
141:58 time to get it to the cities feed the people. So that's
142:06 And like I said, I'm going give you a, um, see
142:12 I can close this thing. I I am. I got a question
142:18 you. Uh, but I emailed three figures I could either sharing my
142:23 or you may be able to pull up. I got him from the
142:27 conference last week. I think they're They're really value bombing. There is
142:33 exactly what we're talking about. E can show you want Why don't
142:39 Why don't you go ahead and show ? I don't e think Maria can
142:43 you take control of the screen? see. Yep. Here we
142:50 You guys got mine. He's Okay, so this was so there
142:59 three grabs that they had And this waas, um geoscience employment areas through
143:07 . And it was interesting because, , as you go through your
143:11 I think I think you're right. more and more people value the emergence
143:15 renewables as like replacing the all these resources. But the problem is that
143:21 not gonna happen for a long And even when that does happen,
143:24 you're saying or were saying It's not at the rate that other people think
143:28 could happen. So, like, , what they're trying to highlight
143:31 like the different alternative job routes for skills through 2050 and how,
143:37 hydrocarbon still play a huge role in skill set through through that time period
143:41 the next 30 years. And then was another one they had employment
143:45 Geoscientists is expanding. So, predicts shortage, like a job shortage
143:50 35 full time employees by 2028 s of the biggest fields is the
143:56 But you still need geoscientists. And I don't think they have any like
144:01 specifically, but because it s so think that's kind of like where they
144:04 that up into. But here's Here's geological and petroleum technicians. Where
144:09 you see that? Is it over ? Right here. Right there.
144:15 , yeah, I'm missing. yeah, There it is. There
144:17 is. So they're saying 5% of full time that 35%. Um,
144:23 they're essentially saying it's not going Um, and then the other
144:27 they had this graph it was just and I've got the full picture.
144:32 can send you the actual, like . Whoever wrote this up? I
144:36 it. Just I just screamed, it while they were given their
144:38 But this is the example of skill the skill sets needed, like all
144:43 skills that were getting in this And while why are they is this
144:46 capture? Is that what that Yeah, that's carbon capture, utilization
144:50 storage or utilization and sequestration. like finding containment plumbing, and then
144:56 is, like, extremely relevant for because I've literally just took a job
145:02 with a carbon capture utilization company. , uh, yeah, it's
145:09 This is crazy that you're giving this . So and so this is kind
145:13 what the skill sets that they And And, you know, this
145:17 what the people I guess you were about, and it's exactly it coincides
145:21 what you just They ended up saying gonna be a shortage, right?
145:25 , Exactly what they're saying is, you could hold on if we can
145:28 just hold on Thio, whatever we for the next couple of years,
145:32 gonna be all right. The last , the last time the oil industry
145:35 in this kind of shape Ah, was not 2000 and 2009. It
145:41 about 1999. And, uh, stop doing everything. And then
145:48 uh, 2000 and four, ExxonMobil something just like this and said,
145:59 is we're going to need this many graduates just for our company. And
146:07 listed a big number because a lot people, you know, naturally we're
146:11 to be retiring. And, uh that number was mawr than,
146:18 all of the graduate students put together just the United States. Not across
146:25 world, of course, but just United States. Of course, the
146:28 States might have had 30% of that , or 20% of that output.
146:33 but and that's what's gonna happen this . And, um, a lot
146:39 ah, I don't know what it about people in this program, but
146:44 ah, lot of the alumni that . You guys have been doing very
146:51 . And some of them have even . Fellas even started up his own
146:56 company. I think near Texarkana. wish I could remember his name right
147:02 . I just just escapes me. he's now He got a bunch of
147:08 funding and he's produced this high quality company that apparently is hard to get
147:13 hands on on. There's a big for it. And he just switched
147:18 the oil and gas and went into . And But I think it,
147:23 it kind of underscores the type of to get into this program. You're
147:27 , uh your you're not here because and Dad told you to go to
147:32 . You're here because you really wanna and you want to be successful.
147:37 , uh and my guess is that gonna be successful, So just keep
147:42 the good work. And they really that. By the way, they
147:46 like the carbon credits, like a . And they really liked the the
147:51 , like, you know, of , because, like, I don't
147:53 an MBA and I don't have you know, our you have a
147:58 or c f a. But geologists , I told him in the
148:01 I said geologists are value creators and mitigators. So, like, that's
148:06 what other people other business professionals are right now. Yeah, but I
148:10 know if it's gonna happen this but I think lot of lot of
148:15 reservoir skills they're going toe come into at some point in time. It's
148:20 gonna be putting stuff in instead of it out. E I just thought
148:25 thought I'd share that. I thought was and I'll share those pictures with
148:28 . I think I emailed you Thio you the slots. But yeah,
148:34 two floods are a good way to rid of it too. Okay,
148:40 , with that, I'm gonna let guys, I guess we've kind of
148:42 over. And, uh, since our first Saturday, let's start it
148:49 . 45 instead of 8. Uh, just give me 15 extra
148:59 . I've got I've got all these joints and it takes me at least
149:02 extra 10 minutes to make everything And anyway, I'll see you guys
149:11 . Thank you. Thank you. by the way. It is fantastic
149:15 see all of you again. I miss all of you. Do you
149:21 do you have, like, five after class to talk real quick,
149:25 . Yeah. Could you give me call on my get me to call
149:29 on the phone number you gave Yeah, I'll do that. E
149:40 it's gonna be a specific capstone, if you have a Daniel Daniel,
149:45 can have a separate phone call. , That's what. And send me
149:50 email, and we can set up time tomorrow or not tomorrow, but
149:53 Monday. Okay. Okay. We'll you guys. E have to stop
150:00
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