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GEOL6381/4382 Introduction to Petroleum Geology - Van-2
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00:02 So I've started the recorder. I'm to share my screen. Can everybody
00:21 lecture to Yes. Okay. Looks like everybody's here. Okay,
00:38 this is lecture to hang on. a minute. I'm back, but
00:57 . Eso What we're gonna look at is, um, sort of what
01:03 resource and reserve is. Um, that's been a narrative for a long
01:09 . Is this thing called peak And ah, a lot of people
01:15 worried about peak oil. No one to be worried about it right
01:20 and it really has a lot to , obviously, with the balance between
01:28 and consumption. And, uh, also I should say production.
01:37 sometimes I put consumption in here. probably should be production, but we
01:42 only consume a ZMA each as we and s o when, uh,
01:48 that balance between production and demand prices go up and prices go
01:55 If we have. If we're producing than we need, then,
02:02 we're going to see a drop in prices and vice versa. A lot
02:07 big questions is once we get done , say, the bacon or
02:12 what's going to replace that. I'm gonna bring up something about a very
02:18 truth. Um, about sustainability was in that movie. It was the
02:29 first slide, and everybody seems to ignoring it. And, uh,
02:34 to kind of look at, you , how much energy do we really
02:39 . And it's not just annoy oil gas issue. It's a total energy
02:44 , and then we're going toe kind Get to where? Where does this
02:48 us? And I'm gonna Early next , I'm gonna send you an
02:52 And you can, um, put your five cents. And really,
02:56 gonna be grading you on the fact you've got some original data. You
03:02 at some original data and you came with a real conclusion about it.
03:08 , this this is getting to be old picture. This is National Geographic
03:15 , but I don't think much has in the world. We still we
03:21 are What a lot of people like call a disposable society. You
03:27 we buy things and we throw them . We buy things and we throw
03:30 away. Um, I'm sure many you have heard about all the plastic
03:36 end up in the ocean. the first concern, for some
03:43 is why are the oil companies making this plastic? Nobody ever puts forward
03:50 question. And again, this is perspectives. Um, you know,
03:56 real problem is that we dump waste the ocean, and that's kind of
04:01 first, the first line of You know, we have a lot
04:09 , uh I think, very well environmentalists to God and collect all this
04:15 . But I think their job would a whole lot easier if we would
04:19 out a way that we didn't have much to throw away. And,
04:24 , and having said something like you know why a plastic straw would
04:30 end up in the ocean? I don't understand. And, uh,
04:36 apparently there are cities along the coast dump lots of plastic into the
04:44 And there are there are always around . Recycling, of course, is
04:49 thing. Um, not using. we don't need to use is
04:54 But when you look at this you know, you have to realize
04:58 Ah, we do live in a economy. And one thing that I've
05:04 in this pandemic is that people used go to the store and they look
05:10 things and, you know, they decide, you know, do I
05:12 that? And they looked at it few more times and decided they didn't
05:15 it. Now what a lot of do is they get online and they
05:19 something from Amazon or whatever, uh, everybody isn't this way,
05:25 some people just order and order and . And of course we have.
05:30 have a lot of these, televised shopping centers now, and people
05:39 TV and they by and by and and so a lot of the problem
05:44 really an individual problem. It's, it's It's like insecticides, For
05:51 Um uh, some companies were dumping terrible thing called Cay pone into the
06:00 River in Virginia, and they basically . They poisoned a lot of
06:05 and they also wiped out one of best oyster beds on this planet in
06:10 James River near the head of the River near the Chesapeake Bay. That's
06:15 problem that za real reason to get with industry. But another problem is
06:21 everybody that buys and a can of ah, you know, may spray
06:27 much on their lawn or wherever you're it. And at the end of
06:31 day, they may just dump it a storm drain. And,
06:36 it's no big deal of one does it? Essentially. I
06:40 it's still bad, but it's it's serious. But just imagine if 150
06:46 people dump a can of insecticide in storm drain, Uh, once a
06:53 there once a year or maybe once 10 years, it's going to start
06:57 up. And so there's a lot this is individual responsibility and something that
07:04 I've noticed. You know, I've in school for a long time,
07:10 , and longer than most of you been alive. I was actually in
07:14 , I think, but But I when when I was a young man
07:20 on my bachelors degree, I'll never . The campus that I walked on
07:26 pristine. You never saw anybody throwing on the ground another kind of
07:34 But nowadays a lot of people Well, you know, I put
07:38 there because they pay someone to pick up and they wouldn't have a job
07:41 I didn't throw trash on the And I think that's just the wrong
07:45 . I don't think people that you hpe a thio to pick up the
07:52 would be out of a job if didn't litter the campus. So one
07:56 that I've noticed about the U of campuses many, many times that I
08:00 in there. There's an awful lot litter around, Uh, and some
08:05 the labs. You'll open up the drawers and students have left or candy
08:09 in there. And I'm not picking students or anybody because this is this
08:14 something that's commonplace. You know, hop in somebody's car and you can
08:20 . Over the past three years, been to 25 fast food places because
08:25 rappers air still in their car. I think I think one of the
08:31 of the biggest problems about pollution in disposable society we live in is is
08:37 attitude, and I think on an level people need to take responsibility for
08:42 kind of thing. And and, course, if a lot of trash
08:50 put in proper receptacles and the proper were dumped in proper dumpsites, we
08:57 never see any trash in the no matter how much we produce.
09:02 there. There are a lot of when you see plastics in the ocean
09:08 aren't related to the companies that actually the plastics, and I think that's
09:13 important. And and if you stop think about the incredible value of plastics
09:19 our society at any point, or many of you don't don't think about
09:24 like I dio. But, you , just imagine the PVC and different
09:30 of plastic pipes that we now use our plumbing systems in our sewage systems
09:37 used to use. There was a when they used cardboard coated with tar
09:45 as major sewage and water supply Thank God we don't do that
09:52 and there's another good thing about When you put that plastic in the
09:58 , unless somebody digs it up, going to stay there and it's going
10:02 function for probably hundreds of years, it's it's both efficient and it's safe
10:10 when we use things the proper way it's the same thing with trash and
10:18 , so that hasn't changed. There's these sorts of things and you stop
10:23 think about it. Even cars are made out of more and more plastic
10:30 . And as we go to electric cars, we're going to need more
10:34 more plastic materials to make these cars so that the batteries that they have
10:42 are getting better all the time. have longer lifetimes. You know a
10:46 of them. It's never a good to go below half on your
10:51 and they advertise, you know, , 300 miles on one charge,
10:57 you never wanted want to use up whole charge. So if you use
11:03 materials like plastics, that air durable and they last a long time
11:08 they actually can absorb some shock if bump into somebody, uh, you
11:13 , it's actually a good thing to plastic for those reasons, and that's
11:17 of the non combustible part of the industry. Anyway, having said all
11:23 that, this is the society we in, and as individuals, we
11:28 do as much of not even uh, to protect our environment.
11:33 we personally take a responsibility for the that we use ourselves. Okay,
11:41 I'm off of that soap box. what is a natural resource? And
11:47 is sort of a strictly well written . Think it's a concentration key is
11:55 natural. It's something you know. a substance. It's a liquid solid
12:00 a gas that occurs. And it to be significant quantities that we can
12:06 in society and benefit society. And course, some of these air renewable
12:12 some are non renewable. And to me, is kind of a
12:17 term to the renewable and non Imagine the oil in the ground as
12:25 non renewable. But there is so in the ground, uh, that
12:31 much as we think that will run of it, we may never actually
12:34 out of it in our lifetimes until find something to replace it. And
12:40 it will no longer be a But But, you know, because
12:45 have geologists and geophysicists and know how find this. Mm. Even though
12:51 a non renewable resource. In some , we do have not an infinite
12:57 , but we have an adequate Think that might be a more appropriate
13:05 ? And then we have things that call renewable and just imagine people with
13:13 , growing plants or crops. Of , the renewable. We can keep
13:18 them. But can we grow enough supply the societies that we're creating with
13:26 eight billion people? Within a very period of time? It's going to
13:30 10 billion people. You know How do these renewable things renew fast
13:36 to actually be a substantial benefit to and available at the levels that we
13:43 him? And that's what makes it a resource. And and I'll talk
13:49 about this in a later part of . But again, a natural
13:54 It's It's, of course, got be naturally occurring. And let me
14:00 the class. Do you think oil naturally occurring? Yes, I don't
14:09 if you can raise your hand in in Zoom, but if you could
14:15 . Okay. It is absolutely naturally . Ah, would anybody want to
14:23 this? Question is, is oil bio fuel or not, a bio
14:30 the fuel that comes from biological It is a bio fuel.
14:36 probably 80%. If not 95% of American society would probably not considered a
14:43 fuel because it comes out of a , but we know better.
14:49 so So just kind of keep that mind. Okay, so I have
14:56 little menu thing in front of but here's here's a sort of the
15:01 way to grid Total resource is we these things. They're called discovered and
15:10 . And a lot of people have issue with this diagram that work in
15:15 oil industry because we have to sometimes things beyond a shadow of a doubt
15:21 we on to a bank. So might have a different and more precise
15:26 of what these are. But these These aren't bankers definitions, thes
15:31 just straightforward sort of scientific definitions. so what is a discovered resource
15:40 and obviously the most important thing here it's something that we know exist,
15:47 it's recoverable. And today, and we mean by recoverable today is if
15:55 come over here, we can recover . For example, I've helped discover
16:04 reservoir in, uh, in He was 60 million barrels of
16:12 but there were no pipelines anywhere near . And so to use this,
16:18 really needed to be able to get pipeline to it. And the pipelines
16:23 get to it could have cost almost much as, uh, the added
16:29 of producing that oil in the first . So it was an economic.
16:35 was no reason whatsoever to do okay? And so it became sub
16:46 . Okay, so it's less than . It's It was a known
16:50 but not recoverable today, okay? so we often call these reserves.
16:58 , the word reserve gets really uh, in the oil industry and
17:04 , um, and the banking because you have to have pipe on
17:12 to call it a reserve. You just say I've discovered it and you
17:15 just say I know we can produce . You have to have a pipe
17:19 it. But from a scientific in terms of total resource is if
17:25 look at discovered versus undiscovered economic versus economic, we only have three boxes
17:33 have recoverable today, which we call . We have deposits known, but
17:39 not recoverable in today's market rates. then we have these other things that
17:45 hypothetical. Anybody want to venture to I'll hypothetical resource in terms of the
17:51 industry, like helium? Well, , helium would be one, but
18:01 was thinking more like oil and It would be like the East Coast
18:06 the U. S. Absolutely. exactly what I'm talking about.
18:09 that's hypothetical. We don't have a in it. We don't know what's
18:13 happen. And I don't know if aware of this, but the
18:18 S Geological Survey a big part of goes in and looks at places like
18:25 Eocene of Texas or the alias scene Louisiana or X, Y and Z
18:31 different areas. That might be what would call several different plays in a
18:38 area. Yeah, they know how has been produced. They they know
18:44 much banks air calling reserves because they of know what they can get out
18:49 it. Uh, but they come with a hypothetical number based on the
18:55 of maybe they know a little bit the source rock and how big it
19:01 . And they've predicted that, you , You know, we've produced X
19:07 of barrels of oil, the next amount of, um, uh,
19:14 cubic feet of natural gas. But the volume of this feature and the
19:22 of what we think might be in source rock, they come up with
19:28 much more they think we could find produce from that area. And that's
19:33 , too. Okay, because we actually been able to identify it with
19:39 Orwell, Orwell near it or anything that. So that's what a real
19:47 oneness. And, of course, East Coast is a perfect example.
19:52 , let me ask you since we up the East Coast and I grew
19:55 on the East Coast, so I hoping open Thio to retire in Virginia
20:03 , where I grew up. because anybody tell me why I would
20:08 to go retire in Virginia Beach. , it's a nice place,
20:20 They're not gonna drill over there. , okay. Yeah. What happened
20:26 and then this really is a stoner me. um, during,
20:31 the Obama administration. They actually approved offshore Virginia. And, um,
20:43 it's like people are scared to death doing it once again. Does anybody
20:49 why that happened? Yeah, And this gets back to personal
20:59 Um, the oil industry needs to responsible, not 99 out of 100
21:05 the companies, But all 100 of need to be responsible. And when
21:11 not, this kind of thing And, uh and that's why we're
21:18 drilling offshore Virginia now. It's not of either political party. It's because
21:26 industry itself in one particular company cut corners. When anybody with a good
21:36 of sense would realize Anytime you cut critical corners, you're gonna have an
21:43 . And but that's what happened. , looking back on it, I
21:49 . Ah, I know a lot the people that worked at BP,
21:52 I know most of people that worked BP were horrified by all this and
21:56 never have let something like that happen their watch. But it did,
22:03 and that's one of the things that have to do and what else happens
22:06 somebody makes a mistake like that ruins everybody else. Yeah, and,
22:14 , a really important word pops It's called regulation. You get more
22:19 . And, uh, I would to guess, uh, except for
22:25 thing. For the most part, regulations we already had in place before
22:30 spill were adequate. The problem is enforcement and people following the
22:37 And since they didn't, you you end up with this problem and
22:41 you end up with more regulations and were created out of, uh they
22:48 to protect either the people of the States or environment. And it's realistic
22:55 understand that all oil companies operating costs drop if we had less regulations.
23:04 we wouldn't need so many regulations if out of 100 played by the rules
23:11 of just 99 or 96 or 97 whatever. And, uh, and
23:17 again, it's It's about personal at corporate level and personal in terms of
23:23 your trash away. All of these , uh, uh, can be
23:29 not just by a company, but the people that work in that
23:36 And the leadership, especially of that . Okay, So anyway, we
23:42 back here to re sources and So reserves resource is that air considered
23:47 be identifiable and technically recoverable under today's conditions and total resource is include reserves
23:56 undiscovered, not identified and currently on . So we know there is a
24:06 offshore of the Atlantic, but we have reserves. Offshore Atlantic. Does
24:12 get that? Okay, if you for an oil company or if you
24:16 for slumbers or somebody like that, definition of a reserve is going to
24:23 quite different because you have tow, pipe behind it, and you have
24:28 be able to prove it with maps the whole nine yards. But from
24:32 academic standpoint and really an industry if you think about it,
24:38 reserves are not just resource is, there. Resource is that we can
24:45 under current economic and regulatory conditions. is, if we remove some of
24:51 regulations or we reduce some of the of producing, we might actually be
24:57 to produce that or, in the of the field in Denmark, that
25:03 was talking about there was a huge gas pipeline coming all the way from
25:11 Norway that went, went all the to Germany and it went by
25:19 And after a while they built enough these pipelines. They're able Thio,
25:24 some the ability to put some oil parts of those systems. And that
25:32 is now economic and producing a lot oil. And it didn't require anything
25:37 . There was a massive natural gas offshore Norway and in the north of
25:48 central, the Norwegian central Grob. and, uh And so basically,
25:58 were able Thio, uh, put pipelines just for that. And as
26:05 offshoot, you are able Thio produce anywhere in the world where you have
26:11 shore facilities and you have pipelines Quite . Uh, having the infrastructure there
26:19 makes the future assets a lot easier produce because thea upfront, uh,
26:29 in terms off of equipment and that of thing in infrastructure has it least
26:35 part been taken care of, so can help us move something from being
26:40 resource to reserve, both keeping our at a minimum. But making sure
26:46 have the ones we need. So don't put on too many extra
26:51 And, uh and then also the , uh, with infrastructure is infrastructure
26:57 developed. Resource is turn into Okay, so then I go into
27:06 , and of course, when we look at what a petroleum reserve might
27:11 Ah, here's a little bit more definition of that. And so if
27:18 was to ask you what a petroleum was, I might do that.
27:21 we're just talking about resource is and of those resource is this is the
27:27 is the overarching definition of that. we can get more specific and talk
27:34 total reserves that include proven probable and and and then also a lot of
27:42 have this thing they call bookable And I know when I when I
27:49 in production geology, the proven was . The probable was a smaller
27:56 and the possible was even a smaller . But we put that in there
28:01 we figured in some of these fields were in, we had enough
28:04 We have the infrastructure. Sooner or , we were going to drill this
28:10 , uh, But this changes depending where you're at which state you're
28:15 whether it's offshore and U. Waters. There's a lot of rules
28:20 on what actually is a bookable So you have to be careful with
28:26 . Okay, here's Here's another way looking at it, and this is
28:33 as the resource Pyramid. Triangles tend make us think of pyramids. For
28:38 reason, I haven't figured that out , but But anyway, these four
28:43 triangles or pyramids, this one doesn't four sides. It's just two
28:50 And, um, what you can here is we have unrecoverable resource
28:57 but we know it's in place. example, there's gas hydrates all over
29:04 place, but we don't know how get him, Uh, how to
29:09 them without actually and possibly destroying the that we're using. Thio release it
29:16 the subsurface and or the surface of ocean. Then we have things that
29:21 know that we way. In other , we can drill deep enough we
29:27 we can put some kind of jacket it to heat it up,
29:31 get a production line to it. , but it's still not economic.
29:37 then, then there's the ones that economically recoverable, and you bounce back
29:42 forth between this line, depending on price of the resource, the
29:51 the supply, which controlled to a factor. The price but also things
29:58 infrastructure. Is there a pipeline there not? If there's a pipeline
30:04 something that's down here in one area pop up here in another area where
30:09 already had infrastructure. Ah, if makes a big mistake on all these
30:19 , pop up are economically recoverable. might drift down into here because the
30:25 to produce goes up. But as as things get better as our
30:30 of production gets down in the value what we're producing goes up, we
30:35 Mawr things. That Aaron this proved improbable. And then here we
30:39 start producing it. We have it . Once it's produced, that's
30:43 That's the resource that we knew was , and we made money on
30:48 uh, in some cases to keep flow up, we might actually find
30:55 over producing things at a cost higher what we're getting paid, and that's
31:00 to some companies recently to with the drop and the need for cash
31:06 So this this is really more profound you might think. Just looking at
31:12 because, you know, for a to be in, any one of
31:18 boxes can change just based on economics on that support. An important thing
31:24 remember and economics can be based on , the environment that you're operating
31:33 the government that you're operating in. , uh, and whether or not
31:39 players in that area are trying to by the rules to keep the level
31:44 regulations down. Okay, so here . Here's a concept that bothered a
31:53 of people probably up until the year , but still even beyond that.
31:59 now some people are thinking about it . But it's a thing called peak
32:08 . And does anybody? Could anybody me very quickly? What are the
32:16 of peak oil? But what creates oil? It only takes a few
32:24 to explain it, demanding population it be demand and supply, and,
32:37 , it seems a little tricky and have a hard time dealing with
32:41 But this actually happened? You this This is a history, and
32:46 is also ah, why We, , started talking about peak production because
32:57 happened in the United States. So happens when we get to a point
33:01 this and this? This This doesn't show everything, but there's a reason
33:10 it's like this. Remember I told that we produce what we consume.
33:19 that. And here we have this , and we're producing what we can
33:23 , and we can produce what we consume. And you know that oil
33:30 didn't level off a this point in . Right? Oil production. Excuse
33:37 ? Oil consumption kept going up and in the United States. So what
33:41 here? Your story. What happened is we had to start right around
33:51 . We had to start importing an lot of oil. Okay, so
33:56 United States had reached peak production. world hadn't reached peak production, but
34:00 United States had and so what? production. What peak oil is is
34:08 you've gone around and you've drilled everything think you can drill and you can't
34:13 Reese. Can people see my Mhm. I'm sitting here waving in
34:17 air. I don't know if you see it, but you know,
34:21 producing, you're producing, you're And then no matter how hard you
34:27 , you can't find any more oil keep producing, to keep up with
34:30 rise in the need for production. that's what's peak oil. In other
34:36 , at that point and at this , we had dramatic, um
34:42 deficits in the United States. In words, we became a net a
34:48 importer of oil instead of of self . And that got everybody upset.
34:54 this this concerned everybody over the last decades. And, of course,
35:02 we get down into about right here this thing changes really dramatically after that
35:07 the United States. But for the , the whole thing changed too,
35:10 we started thio produce unconventional. So go look at this. This line
35:20 here is, um okay, this production in the United States, And
35:31 in 2000 and nine, BBC's TV called Horizon. They called me up
35:37 they had a question for me. , they wanted to know how I
35:43 about peak oil because Because, as turns out, the British have given
35:49 guy named Hubbert, Um, credit coming up with the term of peak
35:56 . Okay. And they wanted me tell them in. And I
35:59 Well, I can't tell you that because I knew this was gonna
36:04 I knew that when they asked me that this was about to happen.
36:09 it turned like that right then because was starting toe happen in 2000 and
36:14 . We started pulling on. a lot of these unconventional resource is
36:20 started coming online. Okay, so was peak oil supply a verdict?
36:28 , one of things that happens is , when I first made this
36:33 I just had the 2000 and 8 economic slump. But the other thing
36:39 happened is, since about 2016 to 2021 the oil industry has been in
36:45 major slump, too. And you even push that number back to say
36:51 in your life. Okay. uh, but the other thing
36:56 numerous resource discoveries happen. Ah, large number of probably like 56 or
37:06 multi billion barrel fields were found in Brazil. Three offshore in the
37:10 S. Was finding significant, oil resource is in the deep water
37:17 salt especially, but also in many . And then the things like the
37:25 is came in like gangbusters. And of a sudden they found a way
37:31 the price going up to make money the tar sands. And then,
37:36 course, the premium basins woken up . I can remember through a big
37:41 of my career in the oil industry , that the Permian Basin was pretty
37:47 dead and would be dead forever. then we figured out how to to
37:53 horizontal drilling in Hydrofracking and put those things together, come up with way
38:05 create surface area that would create more in reservoirs that had no permeability.
38:12 so we were able to get those trapped. Resource is out of the
38:19 and one of the things that I a lot of people and even I
38:28 have a hard time imagining this. the demand for energy in this world
38:35 very, very, very large. a huge, huge demand and we
38:44 come up with lots of alternate But if you look at the total
38:49 for energy in the world, even right now during the pandemic, its's
38:56 , it's a massive amount of And and it is very, very
39:03 for people to understand what 85 for million barrels of oil equivalent are in
39:16 of demand for just one source. of our energy sources. That's a
39:23 and and that's that's every day, know, that's a lot of
39:31 Okay, um, increase price of tents to increase the supply.
39:41 Because you make money by drilling it ? Yeah, I remember we were
39:45 about economic and sub economic. If price goes up, what was not
39:53 becomes economic. So without even drilling well, stuff that we couldn't make
40:00 off of starts to make money. then when the price goes up,
40:06 bankers go. Hey, I need get in. I need a piece
40:08 this pie. We need to start like crazy and get some more
40:13 And s o they essentially over That's why it's such a cyclical
40:22 Once we realize we have a valuable again, we get over excited about
40:29 . And so an increase in supply reduces the price of oil,
40:35 and then then you're kind of But you know, one of the
40:39 important things to remember is technology reduces reduce costs. Um, of
40:45 technology is what allows us to produce , but that technology is not
40:51 That's not the cheapest thing in the . And what else happens with technology
40:57 even, um, like I'll lump all together and technology? What happens
41:02 technology when the price of oil goes ? Usually they cut the group,
41:09 But they cut the groups typically in companies. But it seems like it's
41:12 important than ever because it it increases bottom line. It does.
41:17 uh, and, of course, you farm it all out and you
41:21 to call up slumber, say, does slumbers they do or what
41:25 What does horizontal drilling company do when price of oil goes up, charge
41:30 an arm and a leg for They charge more, and why do
41:35 charge more? Because demand is higher the supply of their equipment and their
41:40 becomes limited. And so there's all tethers holding us back. There's there's
41:48 which helps us produce things cheaper, it costs more when we when the
41:52 goes up. Ah, when we mistakes, regulations go up. All
41:58 things off are things that we actually some control over if we think about
42:04 and we need to work on it one of the things that has shocked
42:09 and I've been in the oil industry a while, I'm not in it
42:12 , but I've been paying attention to . But when I was actually in
42:18 , you know, it's just kind amazing in this latest boom,
42:23 because unconventional is require a lot of to produce. Uh, the resource
42:34 that they produce, they have to a lot. In other words,
42:39 have to keep drilling and drilling to the cash flow going and going
42:43 uh, with unconventional. If the went down, you could just walk
42:49 to the valve and turn it off leave it off and produce what you
42:55 . And then when the price went up, you went over and you
42:58 the valve back and you opened back again. But But because of the
43:03 of technology, you know the technology goes into fracking and horizontal drilling,
43:11 , when that when that price goes , those prices go way up.
43:16 when the price comes down, they drop his fast. Aziz, you
43:21 them to drop or as significantly as need them to make your costs go
43:27 . And so that causes a So, uh, that's why I
43:32 the the downfall that we've seen recently like a double whammy. Because because
43:42 your output in conventional wells, they a longer lifetime. They last the
43:50 out of, ah, good conventional , is gonna last a lot
43:54 and the decline curve is not as as it would be in in a
44:00 resource. So when we think about a xgo Oda's unconventional czar, there's
44:05 of like, um, you the flowers blooming in the spring.
44:10 , you know, by the summer all wilted. Whereas in a conventional
44:15 got, you've got coconuts that live through the year and they just keep
44:21 coconuts on top of you all the . I don't know if that really
44:24 , but that's the analogy. I'm . Okay, but here's here's something
44:31 really funny about peak oil. And though it might not have been called
44:38 oil with quotes around it, everybody what peak oil waas. Um,
44:45 in 18 57 here, Romania produces barrels of oil, and that was
44:54 beginning of the modern oil industry. , of course, if you're from
45:00 and my mother's family was from you were told, and you believed
45:05 whole life that the first oil well in Pennsylvania. But it wasn't the
45:12 one was in Romania. That uh, for commercial purposes.
45:19 do any of you have a guess a lot of petroleum came from before
45:26 wells were being grilled just from right? Exactly. There are tar
45:32 in places and their seats, and tar sands and their seats up there
45:37 , uh, in along the Caspian and Azerbaijan. Oil just flows out
45:44 the ground, and they had places you know, the burn. That's
45:46 the burning Bush and whatnot came They just, uh there's always there's
45:52 oil coming out of the ground there some places. So that's where it
45:56 . And then, of course, place was they went out and they
46:00 they produce the oil from from whale , and, uh and that was
46:05 good oil. But it's an expensive on a beautiful number of I got
46:12 tell you, You know, I Wales air just incredible. And it
46:16 hurts my soul when I see people and and, uh, way don't
46:23 the oil like we used to need . But some people just absolutely have
46:27 eat whale meat. I'm not sure , but but if you like
46:31 I can imagine it's pretty good. , So then, uh, they
46:39 , uh, production there in Canada then in Russia. And then,
46:44 , of course Rockefeller started wouldn't end being eso and, uh, in
46:52 79 the U. S. Geological formed in part for fear of oil
46:59 . Okay, so this is sort the first realization of peak oil.
47:05 , in 18 82 the Institute of Engineers estimated hypothetically There was only 95
47:14 more barrels of oil left to produce , but they were producing 25 million
47:22 per year. So that meant in years there'd be no more oil left
47:28 the entire world. And then in Ah, Spindletop happened. And of
47:38 , oil flooded the U. Oil market and that caused problems.
47:42 okay, so I don't know if catching this, but the fear of
47:49 amount of production being available disappearing just going away. And the the ideas
48:02 that we have too much goes too, because what controls how much
48:08 we need, Folks, Many people here. That's it. Population is
48:15 key to everything. It's not. we do is how many of us
48:20 it, and you can easily say only 100 people use a resource.
48:28 not too many are going to abuse . If a million people are using
48:33 resource, there are a lot of that will abuse. If there's eight
48:39 people, there's very, very many that will abuse it. And if
48:43 going to be another two billion, , in the next 15 years or
48:50 it's going to get. It's going get even worse and there's There's nothing
48:54 can do to change that unless we up with bigger and better energy
49:01 Okay, so 1906 again another. though there was a flood here,
49:09 market crashes. And then five years , there's an oil shortage and it
49:15 on and on and things paper Maverick and three. It was a really
49:20 paper, and and I used to all the way up to today,
49:25 I don't think we need to, you get the idea. Uh,
49:30 idea of the fact that we might produced our last drop of oil has
49:36 been in our minds, but it's been a reality, and the fact
49:40 we always think that demand is going disappear has also always been in our
49:47 . But in fact, that's never a reality, either. Asl Ong's
49:52 keeps growing, and I'm not, , if you think about biology,
49:58 really hard to imagine that population growth going to slow down anytime soon.
50:06 , so here is what they came with and uh, they had a
50:14 flag coming up in 2020. And this prediction was in June of 2000
50:19 four. So as late as 2000 four, it was predicted that we
50:24 going toe reach peak oil. And we're all sitting here in the middle
50:30 a pandemic online, we know that didn't happen. And that's not going
50:36 happen. And, uh, in way, I'm glad, Uh,
50:42 some ways, you know, I we could get more energy out of
50:46 resource with less of a carbon And, of course, again,
50:53 everything else, we can do We just have to put energy and
50:57 into it. Okay. And here's is kind of Ah, a couple
51:05 projections and I just like to show real quick. It's kind of
51:10 in a sense, but they have scenarios. And of course, in
51:14 scenario, we won't reach peak oil 2047 according to this, and this
51:21 came out and, uh, 2004 and this was a little bit more
51:29 than this one that had peak oil 2020 this one thought in the worst
51:34 scenario would be 20 26th and 2037 2047. Uh, depending on on
51:41 we could do about it again, didn't happen. And it's probably not
51:46 happen. And this is also where demand was. Demand wasn't even as
51:55 a Z a projected. Okay, here is something Here's growth in
52:05 Here's the base case. This is 2017, and so it looks like
52:11 panning out in our ability to produce and more. You know, at
52:15 point we will reach a plateau, so it's not crazy to think about
52:20 . But here, they're projecting well 2035. And this, of
52:27 was before what happened. Coven It is one thing. And what
52:37 Cova did? Covitz dropped our demand , uh, look at these
52:43 Here we be, uh, we I think about a year ago we
52:47 , like, 100 million barrels a in the world that was being
52:53 Now it's down around 80 something. really, what's happening now is we've
52:58 from a state of worrying about peak versus which is supply. But now
53:07 worried about in the industry. What peak demand? When is the demand
53:11 to peak? And we will forever the future, have more oil than
53:18 need Thio to actually use. So kind of what's happening right now.
53:25 this was made in 2017. you know, we were already seeing
53:32 go up. We're seeing population go , and BP does a really good
53:37 of putting these perspectives together. And Mobil does 12 with a little bit
53:43 a different flair. And through the of my slides, you're going to
53:46 things going, um, kind of and down because, well, they're
53:52 be from one company to another one it's really hard to get graphics that
53:57 the same every year from the same . I don't know why in pie
54:02 , for example, or one of best ways for people to visually see
54:06 of these things. So I really pie diagrams better than some of these
54:12 . So well, I'll be showing some pie diagrams here in a
54:16 But but the thing is, is we know how much we've produced.
54:20 know how much we are producing. have an idea of how much we're
54:24 online. We have sensitivities towards what cause our production to go down.
54:31 could cause it to go up on the same time, we could do
54:34 same thing with demand. And so is something from E. I.
54:42 . And when I give you your , you might be looking on websites
54:48 E I. A. But you also want to look at something with
54:52 A. And it's it's a little inconvenient. I hate to keep using
54:58 word, but the United States came with the Energy Information Administration that does
55:04 lot of this. And and of , uh, the world itself came
55:11 with the International Energy Agency, and all have the same three letters.
55:16 first one, the last one is a in the first one in the
55:21 one have switched around, but in U. S. It's the Energy
55:24 Administration, which is this one E . A. And the other one
55:28 I e. A. The International Agency. Okay, and so here's
55:35 what they predicted ah, few years . Here's May 2015 and they predicted
55:46 a gut glut in oil would end around here in 2016 and it would
55:55 seeing prices go back up. we started to get this separation.
56:02 is production in the blue and this brown to black. I don't know
56:07 it looks like on your screen, it should be brown. But a
56:11 on this side means overproduction. A on this side and this side and
56:20 side means under production. So the goes up in these places and here
56:25 can see in the bar diagram to of help you here. We're producing
56:29 much here. We're producing too little here. Everybody see that and trust
56:35 when it's close, something like a can cause prices to go up because
56:40 slows down the ships from moving the or other things like that. Or
56:44 have to shut in wells again. because this is millions of barrels a
56:52 . This isn't per year. This every day. We have to get
56:55 to refineries and to markets. And here is ah, projection in 2016
57:06 the the glut gap that they had here just kept going on and
57:15 Did it happen there? And here's projection. You're thinking it's gonna end
57:20 . And we did have higher prices a while. Went up a little
57:26 , but now I can't see it here because I met toe close.
57:33 folks out here, let me see I can get control of my cursor
57:45 . Okay, you can see the . Now, look what's happening
57:51 Ah, this is for 2018. so they're kind of forecasting that it's
57:57 to get up the demands going to up past 100 million barrels a
58:02 But we know now it's not right? This is This was just
58:07 December 18, they came out with , okay? And so here's the
58:16 trend line. But here's what's gonna now and take a good look at
58:22 because this is really important. We We have a little bit of red
58:29 here. We have a little bit red over there, which we saw
58:33 the last chart. That glut finally , but what what's happening here?
58:46 in this area, drawing on So you would think that there'll be
58:50 press rebound way? Haven't really seen yet, but that's next year.
58:55 . And it hasn't come yet, and I don't know if it's gonna
59:00 . Exactly. Ah, at this this point, it's probably not gonna
59:06 here, but at some point in , we've shut in all these
59:12 Uh, oil companies have laid off lot of people. Um, production
59:20 dropped. Ah. One thing that happen and is likely to happen is
59:27 when it comes back, is gonna going to accelerate faster than the supply
59:33 . And I think right now, lot of damage is being done to
59:38 industry, and it's gonna be really to recover. Uh uh, something
59:44 would get us up to this level a long period of time. And
59:50 tells some people that that's bad for oil industry. But actual in actual
59:59 , if our ability to produce produced oversupply drops and we can't produce an
60:06 , we're gonna have an undersupply, we're going to see prices coming back
60:11 , and it may not be right , but it certainly is gonna happen
60:15 the in the next year. um, the way things were gone
60:20 now, if they simply figured out way Thio get people to feel safer
60:26 getting on an airplane, and there in there are filtration things and there's
60:32 even mass. It could drop out the ceiling to do this. I
60:37 somebody's thinking about it, but there be ways that they could basically encapsulate
60:42 the people on the plane with a amount of cost and keep the the
60:49 spread of infection down when people are airplanes and people would feel a little
60:53 safer in a little bit happier about able to move around. I certainly
60:57 like to go overseas as soon as myself and I think a lot of
61:03 are really, uh, really just wait to get back on that
61:09 And that will have a big too. Okay, So getting back
61:18 it, here's one of the things happens. The decline curves in mostly
61:25 wells. Look a lot like And, uh, within one
61:30 69% of the production has gone. to keep the production up, you
61:34 to keep drilling and you have to drilling. And one thing that we
61:37 know is happening is a lot of sweet spots are getting drilled up in
61:42 of the young conventional is that we operating today. Not all of
61:47 of course, and there's certainly reserves there to get. But the the
61:52 and easy access thio ah, lot fields is starting to get a little
61:58 tighter if none of this other stuff happening, but because lot of drilling
62:05 stopped, Uh, when you have curves like this, you have to
62:09 drilling and drilling and drilling to keep cash flow going and going,
62:15 and it's And that's actually created a of jobs for engineers that actually design
62:22 and companies, steel companies that produce deal. Thio, uh, on
62:30 the supplies for liners and stuff like . So a lot of things are
62:33 impacted, and because all of that being put on a table, so
62:39 speak, it's not going to when it was when it was delayed
62:44 a little bit. I don't know you remember that flip that I showed
62:48 a few slides back when production was for a little bit. And then
62:54 started to get better and people came and started drilling mawr and we started
62:58 mawr again on we had a little of a surge there for a while
63:02 the price of oil got over $60 barrel, and we were able to
63:07 that relatively quickly because the depth of damage to our industry was not a
63:13 . A zit is right now. what? What is what is going
63:18 actually help force a, um a production of in a in a and
63:30 need and a reduced supply of oil fill that need is gonna be mawr
63:39 . Uh, the next time those cross because we can't recover as fast
63:45 we could the last time we did because too much damage has been done
63:49 our industry. And, uh, that bodes well for people that might
63:54 looking for a job in the near , by the way. Okay,
64:00 is just another one showing you some decline curves and how you know we
64:04 do things to get the production But but the decline curves cumulatively,
64:11 , are pretty sharp. And this for things that we have in the
64:17 . And so here we get back this thing I mentioned and somebody also
64:23 out population. But when when Gore us Ah, his award winning
64:32 uh, that actually mimic some lectures I gave in physical geology in the
64:38 2000. Um, because they're actually and two because that's when I started
64:44 again. One of the things that overlooked was this this population growth
64:51 And it's pretty scary. Uh, you look at it and and,
64:59 course, dollars air going up in . But yes, if you if
65:04 go back, I mean folks, I was when I was when I
65:14 your age, there was about four people on this planet, and now
65:20 we're getting Thio eight billion and and it hasn't been that long.
65:27 mean, my lifetime is very insignificant you consider the growth rate of people
65:33 this planet, and but in terms numbers of people during the time I've
65:40 alive. That's been explosive, and just I don't see that as a
65:45 . And I think anytime anyone talks sustainability and again as individuals, we
65:51 to mention this to people. But you talk about sustainability, um,
65:57 someone doesn't mention population and this a touchy subject, you know, no
66:03 wants to be told you can't have Children, and I don't know how
66:08 will ever work. That will be , Drago, Nian and,
66:12 But until the world realizes that we just keep reproducing at the rate we
66:20 , uh, it's going to be serious problem. And all the other
66:24 of sustainability are really insignificant compared to . And one of the most frightening
66:32 for me to think about is And that's another thing that people that
66:38 worried about sustainability because they have this , that we can grow crops and
66:48 we go to 10 billion people. , when you have more people living
66:56 the planet, you have to have concentrated agricultural places. Uh, that
67:05 have to transport those products, and lot of wasted happens when you have
67:10 do that. Now you get to personal level. People can grow their
67:15 vegetables. And if that happens, will help a lot. But the
67:20 and larger and over more overpopulated our get, the more likely we're gonna
67:28 these centers of population that need to fed by massive farm systems that in
67:35 create more waste in a greater carbon than people want. So sustainability will
67:43 be really addressed until population control is . And it's a horrible thing to
67:49 . It's a horrible thing to because back here when I was growing
67:53 in high school and reading about 1980 the idea of people controlling something like
67:59 was horrific. But now that we're here and in my lifetime, the
68:05 of people on the planet's doubled, , there's very few people that can
68:09 that outside of our generations. so population is the problem. Is
68:18 true that Sorry, I don't mean . Um, isn't it true that
68:24 countries nations, peoples become more developed actually their population rate of change goes
68:30 down? For example, Japan. , yes and no and and that's
68:38 problem. The population is distributed in places. Um, I mean,
68:44 know what you're saying, and people go to college tend to have less
68:49 10 Children. And, uh and I'm not saying that Negative. There's
68:56 wrong with people having 10 Children if want, but, uh, from
69:00 moral perspective, But when we think population, it's a it's it's really
69:09 mean, this is 2000 and and, you know, we're already
69:13 here. We're we have skyrocketed and , you know, it's just,
69:25 know, disease. The spread of is showing its ugly face right now
69:30 than anything, and that could have positive, unfortunately positive effect on on
69:37 control. Mm one. Really? imagine if Ebola got into the United
69:44 with with nobody following the guidelines that were given, that would have been
69:51 , and it's a good thing that happen. And and there may may
69:58 be something as bad as Ebola, worse than co vid that comes
70:04 and if we're not prepared for it's going to be It could also
70:09 one of these things, too. even when we do this, you
70:12 , we're still talking about a lot people, you know, Here's 2020
70:18 we're right. We're right at eight right now. So we're not falling
70:23 like this yet. And eso were on the red curve, as far
70:28 I can tell. And, it is, you know, nature
70:35 that way. It has natural controls competition and disease. And,
70:41 competition between species and disease often are ends up controlling populations. But I
70:48 , uh, we are very, clever species, especially the people in
70:54 classroom, and we can solve a of problems, and it's that help
71:01 in the short term. But in long term, we may be causing
71:05 significant problems than we realize. And something about agriculture, and it contributes
71:12 a third of entropy Anthropogenic co two . When I first put this up
71:19 in 2012, people thought I was and a little bit I thought I
71:25 kind of crazy to about this, , um, it makes a lot
71:30 sense, but it's part of the budget that a lot of people pay
71:34 attention, Thio. You can sue companies, but you can't sue
71:41 That's a political known of but And is something else that I found really
71:48 when the BP oil spill happened. , and we were hearing,
71:54 people from M I t. And very well known universities make statements.
71:59 was obvious that most of them didn't what a natural seat waas or that
72:05 were natural seats for that. There a lot of oil that naturally seeps
72:13 the Gulf of Mexico without anybody ever an oil well, And part of
72:19 reason is anytime organic material is And I'm glad, Uh, Dr
72:29 is not listening to me because I explain. This is complicated, as
72:33 would on go through a couple of cycles to explain it. But the
72:40 and bolts of it are whenever whenever turn the soil over, you re
72:46 release co 202 and and of sometimes you bury it when you overturn
72:54 . But at the same time, releasing co two and 02 in the
72:59 , and also transpiration releases water from plants. What is the number one
73:08 Gas Co. Two, of is the one way seem Thio,
73:14 think, rightfully focus on it, it's it's not the only greenhouse gas
73:18 be worried about. And, and the more feels that we have
73:23 grow like this, the more we're to be releasing just to keep the
73:28 fed. And, uh, have of you ever driven by a cabbage
73:35 ? Ah, a couple of weeks harvest time. You know, in
73:46 you don't have these things. But Virginia, where we have lots of
73:49 we call truck farms that have vegetables stuff, you know, other than
73:54 and wheat Ah, one of the that you notice, uh, in
73:59 lot of the vegetable fields is, , the stench of eso to sulfur
74:07 . And of course, that means rotting. And when everything rots,
74:11 is the bacteria producing and emitting into atmosphere? Besides just sulfur dioxide,
74:22 admitting a lot of CO two and methane you can't smell, but if
74:27 can smell the s 02 you can rest assured that a lot of methane
74:33 being put into the atmosphere at that in time. And so a lot
74:37 people don't think about this. And , like these folks at MIT,
74:43 of them did not appear to realize just algae, all those phytoplankton
74:52 And now a lot of them we call algae. We call them cyanobacteria
74:58 things like that because we've reclassified But all of the fighter plankton that
75:04 and ends up on the ocean floor to rot, and it on the
75:11 begins to produce Methane and Co the surface of the ocean and stuff
75:16 the ocean column. A zit and there are places offshore,
75:25 the Mississippi River, where he fluent our fertilizer going offshore creates incredible blooms
75:32 the death of all those fighter plankton actually created dead zones out in the
75:37 of Mexico, where absolutely nothing can because, ah, oxygen's depleted.
75:45 you just have these co two uh, anaerobic bacteria, uh,
75:53 things. And so agriculture is not small thing. Uh, 30% of
76:00 footprint is a significant amount of our . Okay, so, yes.
76:11 what else besides burning hydrocarbons started with industrial revolution. Large scale in my
76:28 . Okay, Yeah, we did . But when we're burning hydrocarbons,
76:34 worry about Well, you know, do release a lot of methane,
76:37 a lot of times we flare So when we burn hydrocarbons, you
76:42 when we're producing energy way, create two ah, in the production part
76:50 it. But also in the utilization it. Ah, you know,
76:54 we're using it in our cars and and planes, we're putting co two
76:58 the air. But around 18. you know, we started. We
77:04 trains and stuff like that, And so we're burning coal were burning
77:09 . We're building plants that have steam engines. Ah, but once
77:16 stand, we started making these things tractors and stuff like that.
77:21 What else did mankind do right around . 49. And, um,
77:27 isn't the first time they did but when did it really start getting
77:32 ? I mean, in 1949 it . It's one other thing that actually
77:37 to do with a greenhouse gas. this is this is what I mean
77:46 paying attention to data. Uh, ? Industrial farming, not farming like
77:55 cattle. Well, industrial farming, . But here's what happened.
78:03 if you pulled your slides up, would have had the answer. I'm
78:07 you didn't pull it up, but McCann mechanized agriculture and irrigation at the
78:13 time. And so this more mechanized is doing this kind of thing.
78:20 course it took It took until about 19 hundreds for that to really take
78:24 . But at the same time, also started this thing called Irrigation.
78:30 most of this really started, in the 20th century. But it
78:37 getting started then and and, uh of course, in the 19 twenties
78:42 thirties, we started building lots of and started impounding water on.
78:51 one of things that ah lot of have said is that, um
79:00 let me explain this before I get that. Ah, h 20 is
79:09 one of the most important greenhouse But after I seats, groundwater is
79:15 second largest courts. And, what did we start doing?
79:21 in the industrial revolution was we started put pipes in the ground and produce
79:26 to irrigate into we put these little do you call them? Tall,
79:33 Zehr. You know these windmills there in Texas all over the place and
79:38 water out of the out of the and getting into the surface atmosphere,
79:47 of water. And, uh so kind of kind of what started to
79:52 in this empowerment really started in the hundreds. And the mechanization,
79:57 in the 19 twenties and 19 thirties farming got to be really big.
80:03 so now a lot of it. looked at mechanization and we look at
80:08 , but the production of oil really start around 1900 either. So so
80:13 lot of this stuff a to the time that were burning hydrocarbons. We
80:19 started doing mawr with agriculture in the of irrigation by putting taking water out
80:27 the ground and storing water on the . In other words, keeping more
80:31 it in the surface atmosphere, And what does that do when you
80:37 more water on the surface? More water on the surface? What does
80:42 do to the the overall amount of vapor in the atmosphere it operates
80:52 it raises it. In other we get more. We get mawr
80:57 gas. Uh uh. Due to that extra water that we've pulled out
81:03 the ground, it's been sequestered in ground as groundwater. Now we've pulled
81:08 out. Not only that, when rains, uh, to prevent flooding
81:14 to have water for water, sources drinking sources and irrigation we've been pounded
81:21 so less makes it to the We have thes large broad fresh water
81:28 on the surface. Uh, that quicker. Fresh water evaporates quicker than
81:33 water that what are used to drain the ocean or permeate back down into
81:39 ground. Uh and so we, , we weren't really keeping it on
81:45 surface and we didn't keep it in reservoir. You go to the
81:49 There's plenty of water in the but it's saltwater, and it doesn't
81:53 as quickly. And so overall, input of water to the atmosphere in
82:02 of absolute, uh, amounts of vapor and in droplets. Unfortunately,
82:11 been looking for years and you might look, but I haven't seen very
82:16 studies say anything other than we This is an important area to
82:22 But we need to do more, on it. And, uh,
82:26 it bother you that green that the one greenhouse gas on the planet is
82:35 ? It's not CO two, and we're not studying water, and and
82:43 don't understand that at all. But maybe when you do this little
82:48 I give you maybe somebody, we'll some information I haven't been able to
82:52 . Nobody consume the earth. That's nobody can what to the earth.
82:58 , You can't do that either, you? And and of course,
83:04 you can't see the Earth and who's to fund it? But,
83:08 but anyway, here's in the next . Whether is has been and
83:11 we will always be the number one gas on this planet, and the
83:16 could be over 100 times that of two. Most scientists say what is
83:22 by the temperature and water does not temperature. And that is in part
83:27 , of course, because as temperature up, uh, it can,
83:34 , air can hold more water vapor when temperature goes down. and holds
83:40 water vapor. So that does control . However, Imagine being in a
83:45 and, uh, temperatures going But what's the relative humidity? It's
83:52 or two or 25 or some low . Um, so unless water vapor
83:58 always at 100% uh, it's That is not the absolute controlled temperature
84:04 not the absolute control of how much vapor we have in the atmosphere.
84:10 of water vapor is also important. the more fresh water we have in
84:16 lakes and the more freshwater we pull of the ground and throw into the
84:21 when we water, you know, of time when we irrigate, most
84:25 that water goes into the atmosphere. , of course, then it
84:28 But point I'm trying to make Is what our source is in that water
84:35 that we call the surface and atmosphere volume? And nobody has figured out
84:41 way to figure out how much that's . Now they are doing some of
84:45 with satellites, and they're starting to that it's definitely going up, but
84:51 one has gotten enough information as far I can tell to make a real
84:55 thing. And again, I think you stop and think, you
85:01 When did this problem of climate change start? Did it really start when
85:07 started producing lots of oil and Or did it really start when we
85:11 lots of oil and gas and irrigation mechanized agriculture? You know what are
85:18 are all the factors? One of worst things you could do with seismic
85:23 geological data is focused on one One variable when there's 56 or seven
85:31 have a role and in some a major role and the outcomes of
85:37 those variables air doing, whether they're up or down. And we know
85:41 her vapor, uh is the number greenhouse gas on this planet always has
85:47 , and we're not studying it. is really seriously studying it right
85:52 As far as I can tell I'm sure there's at least two places
85:55 the world you have not 10 that are looking at it. But the
85:59 and the research is not getting out the limelight. Okay? So because
86:05 of these things required and and I'm know it sounds like I'm on a
86:10 , but I'm not really trying to this is the thing we need to
86:14 on. But I'm saying that this something that he could have a major
86:19 , and we are ignoring it. just, like ignoring the temperature increase
86:26 work, uh, climate change itself ignore that is a risky thing.
86:32 to ignore the impacts or the variables air causing that to happen is very
86:39 as well. Because if we don't at all the variables, we may
86:44 to fix the problem focused on one when it turns out that variable is
86:50 as important as we thought, it waas. And for all of these
86:54 , you will find out that um co two going up does correlate
86:59 temperature. What a vapor Going up correlate with temperature. Ah, temperature
87:08 up does correlate with mechanized agriculture. but correlation does not equal the
87:16 And so we have to be very about how we evaluate decent.
87:22 so let's take a break now Before get onto this next section, it's
87:27 almost a now and a half. if I can figure out how toe
87:31 these controls on this, uh, just paused this share. Everybody is
87:56 there. Mhm. You're all Mhm. Now I need to figure
88:06 where my recorder went. Can you hear me? Yes. Yeah,
88:23 . Well, she's let me see I could do something here. There
88:55 go. I had to stop I couldn't pause sharing. And now
89:00 gonna pause. Can result. This isn't too complicated, but you
89:07 to figure it out. And that's wrong. That's the wrong lecture.
89:26 . Okay, now I need to my screen again. See everybody.
89:40 that? Yes. Okay, so many? How much energy do we
89:46 and what are the sources? So know climate change is an issue.
89:53 know disease is an issue we know an issue. Right now, supply
90:01 seem to be an issue at but that's not going to stay the
90:05 forever. And so what we're gonna at now is is you know,
90:10 , how much energy does the planet ? And when asking that question or
90:17 that question, we also need to about the fact that, um with
90:25 , the population is still really going considerably significant. It's almost log
90:37 Okay, So what I thought we focus on here is, uh,
90:43 terms of energy consumption in exit. and I put this down here because
90:50 when I give this lecture, I people I don't know what an exit
90:54 is, but I know it's a of energy, but I put this
90:57 here so that I consumed, almost I know what I'm talking about.
91:02 277.78 terawatt hours, and if we across the globe at, I've actually
91:13 this diagram down because it had a more countries on it. But I
91:17 , Ah, if I put the 10 or so, that would be
91:24 enough. And I brought the scale in so you can see right now
91:33 China is actually the biggest user of right now. And, you
91:38 20 years ago, it was not years ago. It was not developed
91:46 much as it is now, but population is definitely growing. And I
91:54 that addresses some of the some of concerns about population growth and the fact
92:02 it's it is getting very significant. , but here in the US,
92:11 , our consumption there's 94.65 jewels. exit Jules and I can't really tell
92:22 how much that is, but it's lot of energy. And,
92:26 liquid energy is only one form of energy that we use. And I
92:35 used this slide the first time I . Or maybe the it looks like
92:40 at the it's copyright in 2005. would have been about the actually the
92:46 time I taught, uh, freshman , cause I used to teach at
92:52 twice a year. Now I only graduate courses, and petroleum geology is
93:00 upper level undergraduate course. But this a nice little couple of pie diagrams
93:09 can see here. Petroleum's really big gas is big. Coal is big
93:16 powers. 8% all of renewal. is 6% now. What's significant about
93:25 renewable energy is everybody goes, wow. You know, we're gonna
93:29 we have to do is grow this we'll be able to replace all of
93:35 . Okay, if we could just can just grow enough renewable energy and
93:40 enough renewable energy. We can replace of this hydrocarbon based energy source.
93:49 , here they're telling you they've only 6%. But when you think about
93:53 , 50% of that at this point time was biomass. Biomass, which
94:00 bio fuels, burns high burns and creates hydrocarbons. Uh, creates.
94:09 me. It burns hydrocarbons, and creates co two. So only 3%
94:15 all of this in in 2000 and , which is when this is supposed
94:22 have been like, if you get in 2005, it will never have
94:27 because we don't know what the numbers for 2005 and usually takes them a
94:32 to figure out what, the year that Waas. So a lot of
94:36 , it's 2000 and five. You not be able to get really
94:40 uh, any later than 2003, in 2000 and one, this was
94:49 situation as it was then. So only a third of the Reno half
94:57 the renewable resource is or 3% of total that we need just in the
95:02 States, Uh, is carbon Okay, so then we look the
95:12 slide, and this is we go 2016. Okay, If you look
95:22 at here 6% 11 years later are from 2000 and one rather 15 years
95:38 , renewable energy has gone from 6% 10% in its attempt to replace all
95:47 this. Okay. And again, less than half. So they're doing
95:58 here. So out of this 10% 5% of it is actually has a
96:11 footprint, and only a little over of it is carbon neutral. And
96:18 , in 15 years we've gone let me put the laser pointer on
96:24 . In 15 years, we've gone 3% to 5.4% carbon neutral, which
96:35 2.4% increase, or a 0.16% increase year. Now, um, let
96:46 just ask anyone in the room. you feel like we're winning the
96:51 Uh, to replace all of this . Just imagine how maney wind farms
96:59 maney solar farms. How many Um and so on have been built
97:10 those in those 15 years, not in China and the United States,
97:16 all over the world. And when you hear people talk about the contribution
97:25 of those systems, they tell you times not in how much is
97:32 but they talk about capacity. We the capacity to provide all the electricity
97:41 that city. We have the capacity provide the electricity for these two cities
97:47 these three cities. But the capacity not what they can produce, usually
97:54 especially solar and wind because of day night. And because when changes,
98:06 in the best case scenario capacity producing 30% is pretty much the highest level
98:15 been able to achieve up to this in time. So if, uh
98:21 you were compared to a nuclear if if nuclear reactors were like windmills
98:30 solar farms, then it would take nuclear reactors to produce the energy that
98:37 out of one of them. And there's no way that that is not
98:43 expensive and and it's also the reason Ah, as we're doing this.
98:53 have to remember that when when that is not being utilized, we have
98:59 have a backup. And of natural gas is a good backup,
99:04 companies and power companies know this. so they've been building a lot of
99:08 gas power plants to back up the and the solar. And let me
99:13 clear about one thing. I don't anything against solar or wind energy,
99:19 what I worry about, what I about is Theobald iti to scale it
99:25 at the rate at which we want scale it up. I don't I
99:28 actually think it's even possible, but think everybody's effort to try to scale
99:35 up as fast as they can I is well worth the effort. The
99:40 is that it's not being delivered, , as quickly as we would like
99:47 see it happen, and, when I've given public's talks about
99:53 I always point out that I'm neither or against alternate sources. I'm actually
100:00 all sources of energy, to be in a responsible manner and to be
100:06 the best way we can use Given the capacity and the production rates
100:11 we have, And that's what I we all have to think about.
100:15 in the oil industry. We still to be grateful that there is a
100:19 in a wind energy system because the needs it. We also need to
100:26 good that this thing over here, natural gas, can produce the same
100:33 of energy as coal and petroleum and half the carbon footprint. Just imagine
100:40 someone said all of a sudden you reduce the carbon footprint by 50%.
100:45 can do that with natural gas. of the sneaky lies, though,
100:50 things about petroleum and natural gas is we still flare a lot and and
100:57 still have a lot of what seemed be minor leagues. But they
101:02 uh, across the globe. And that's the stewardship thing, the personal
101:09 corporate responsibility that we need to try do everything we can to make that
101:17 footprint, Uh, that we with petroleum and natural gas as small
101:22 possible to even further reduce the carbon that oil and gas is actually
101:29 So there's a lot of work we do, and there's a lot of
101:32 they could do with solar and But the job is definitely not done
101:37 it won't be done for the next years. I don't think if even
101:42 But, you know, we could a major breakthrough. But at this
101:45 in time, after looking at these , I find it hard to consider
101:54 something like that could even happen. here I got to 2019.
102:00 So from 2016 to 2019, we've from 10% to 11% renewable. And
102:10 listening to me right now and myself well, we know that China and
102:16 States have really been putting a lot . And even the state of
102:20 by the way, has been putting lot into wind farms and solar
102:25 And this thing called hydro electric and a look back here. Hydro electric
102:31 24 it Z now down to 22 of that 11% and courses this pie
102:44 . Ah, One of the good we're seeing is that biomass over here
102:49 dropped to 43% of that 11% so we're getting getting a little bit better
102:56 getting this. And could anyone in class tell me why anybody thinks that
103:07 are good? And why are they trees? Air? Pretty reliable,
103:19 . Okay, well, they are , right? The key is for
103:25 is they do fall in the category renewable, and they help people say
103:30 they have 11% renewable energy. but but this renewable energy is not
103:39 the carbon footprint at all. Does , Uh, does anybody in the
103:44 know why we started to do biomass and bio fuels and a lot of
103:53 companies? This is this is kind Ah, hiccup to me. I
103:57 quite understand it, but if you biofuels, you get carbon credits if
104:03 go toe a carbon tax system, biofuels air not saving on the carbon
104:11 . Uh, the whole reason why , uh, is being pushed,
104:19 they try to get it to have trying to grow it back. Several
104:22 companies, they're saying they're gonna be zero because they're gonna goto biofuels.
104:27 that's not just not going to be case. Uh, the whole reason
104:31 were doing this gets back to the part of our lecture because we thought
104:38 oil was a really thing, that were going to run out of
104:42 People thought, Well, we have renewable way to create hydrocarbons, and
104:49 called this biomass production. The recycling probably, uh, could help the
104:57 footprint. I'm not sure, but other ones definitely do not. Burning
105:00 doesn't help at all. Biofuels are same way. Putting alcohol in your
105:06 doesn't reduce the amount of co And so we have, uh,
105:15 issue with this, uh, in of if peak oil isn't gonna
105:21 There's absolutely no reason to really focus biomass or growing having farms of growing
105:28 amounts of algae that, by the , while the algae is growing that
105:32 going to convert toe oil is gonna a carbon footprint converting algae to hydrocarbons
105:39 we can use. This fuel will a carbon footprint. And then when
105:43 actually burn those hydrocarbons, they will a footprint. So it really,
105:49 it makes almost no sense to me anybody else is having ideas. But
105:54 the last three years, we've gone that 5.4% to 6.27% co two
106:05 which is a 0.87 increase. And almost a third of a percent Uh
106:13 , per year over over that period time. And I'm not sure,
106:17 the math doesn't look right. Mhm should be. Um it should be
106:24 third of the 0.87 So I guess got excited about my calculator last night
106:31 made something wrong, but I think gonna be a little bit less than
106:35 . But again, the problem is that as we put a lot of
106:41 , money and effort into this, again I agree is something we need
106:46 do. Ah, we're still not the war against this. And I
106:55 the reason why this one up is year, we've We've gone up a
107:01 bit. Mawr. Uh, then were in the previous years,
107:10 And that's because we've been investing more . So here is one of those
107:17 energy supplies. One vision and you see here around 2020. Oil was
107:23 to drop off, and I believe dark green is heavy. Oil and
107:29 gas was going to drop off. is almost completely disappeared, so this
107:33 all completely wrong. This was predicted 1997. Solar, wind and geothermal
107:46 are not there. What? They be here, but we come back
107:50 2020. They're still very small, it started before 2020. And the
107:57 rate is really, really small. don't know how they're going to get
108:01 kind of expansive growth rate that they . Hydro Electric, You know,
108:06 only so many dams. Uh, many rivers that weaken, dam up
108:12 damming up rivers is also not an or or landscape or let's see lakes
108:20 nice. But if your house happens be where the lake is now,
108:24 not so nice to the people where they flood millions of acres of land
108:30 people happen to have cities in the of those reservoirs. So that's a
108:35 thing. A nuclear power, a scary and as dangerous as it
108:44 and the fact that we still don't how to ah safely store a lot
108:51 the waste. Ah, as faras footprint. This could produce as much
108:59 as we needed if we if we to it and it would have a
109:04 carbon footprint. So in my of anything really challenges, uh,
109:11 , natural gas and coal combined, going to be nuclear power. And
109:17 that's just based on the technology that have today. I think these things
109:21 going to continue to grow. But don't see this massive expansion Ah,
109:28 the near future. Because if if really what we've done is we've put
109:36 somewhere around here on the curve and not seeing it expand like that.
109:44 what you see here, here, got you know, you've only
109:50 um, 5.4% going to 6.27% and, uh, and that just
110:00 that much in three years. And and here's another. Another way
110:08 looking at it. And And this talking about primary energy. Not this
110:14 an energy. This isn't, power generation. Power generation or producing
110:20 is only one source, But you see here, um, they have
110:28 , uh, at 20%. You can see here says 2035.
110:37 renewables actually are higher than that. the carbon footprint is not getting a
110:44 of the renewables. And it's only of that. And we are up
110:50 around 11% already at 2020 we're up here, but we aren't getting that
110:56 benefit of the renewables. In other , reducing this a T expense of
111:04 is that we're only getting half of benefit because biomass is still close to
111:10 . We can see that natural gas going up. Cole, Um,
111:15 the later diagrams is gonna creator, an oil still hasn't fallen down like
111:20 . And this was done in And, uh, here, you
111:26 see. Uh, this is a that just talks about power generation,
111:31 is producing electricity. And you can that, uh, for producing electricity
111:38 is gonna is predicted to phase completely cold, for some reason, is
111:44 a major player. Um, natural has gotten bigger and stayed big.
111:50 has shrunk and stayed the same. renewables come in here in high growth
111:56 falling down. But again, as can see, we're not even if
112:01 go to 2035 on here, we completely replaced, uh, and
112:07 only half the renewables. Or let's say it's 60% of the renewables are
112:14 have a zero carbon footprint. So oil is still gonna have to play
112:19 major role in this because coal is . Uh, almost completely right
112:25 even though it was supposed to have big boom, Uh, Cole is
112:29 completely gone. Okay. And, , and looking at, uh,
112:36 , uh, the demand and growth can see here. This was in
112:42 . We thought things were going to keep going up. And does anybody
112:46 what the non combust? It ISS anybody there? What doesn't What?
113:00 combust but provides power? Don't Okay, well, it Z
113:06 this is liquids demand. And, , so remember the, uh,
113:19 generation right here is purple. but liquids air demanded for all sorts
113:29 other things, like powering the insides buildings, industry ships, planes,
113:36 , trucks and cars. More of is going to go to electricity,
113:40 look at what they have here in is a projection of power and power
113:49 power generation equals electricity and renewables is just a small part of that and
113:58 half the renewables, while 60% of are going to be carbon free and
114:02 still in terms of our overall demand liquids, power is right. There
114:09 that little thing right there. And rest of it's going to be this
114:14 , if if we, um if take cars and trucks off the
114:20 we're going to need to create more this power. If we have to
114:24 more power to power the cars and we're gonna have, we don't have
114:33 renewables to do it. We're gonna toe pump up. We've taken the
114:37 out, we're gonna have to put more oil. And there's just no
114:41 around it. I don't see. mean, you know, it's you
114:45 imagine a world you want, but don't see how you're going to eliminate
114:51 with this kind of transport demand that having. And during the point out
114:56 during the, uh, the cove 19 thing, we found out that
115:02 lot of people are buying things on and all of that is being transported
115:07 by large trucks and small trucks. is trying to go electric,
115:14 uh, that's gonna be a major to And I think, ah,
115:21 Tesla, we've seen issues with battery keeping up with car production. And
115:26 think when we get the bigger trucks bigger, bigger cars and more trucks
115:30 more cars, we're gonna have more with getting the materials for rapid battery
115:35 . But maybe we won't. But , if we take, we take
115:40 out of this. Uh, we're have to put more liquids in the
115:44 mix because renewables is just not going handle the job for power generation.
115:54 . And and here's, um, thing, um and of course,
116:02 asked a question about non combusted. combusted Use of liquids is going to
116:08 plastics. Things like plastics. In words, you're not burning it,
116:12 you're using the liquid. So it's of the liquid demand. And because
116:25 gas is 50 to 60% co two less compared to other fluids like oil
116:33 definitely coal, which isn't a Um, this is ah really important
116:39 for people to realize if, one of our atmospheric guys it now
116:48 with the U. S. Um um, on such issues,
116:55 said that, uh, just switching lot of the power plants in the
116:59 States a few years ago from from to natural gas made us reduce our
117:08 footprint by more than the Paris Accord was asking for us to do.
117:12 changed a little bit since then because kind of leveled out. But when
117:16 first started replacing coal power plants with two, the carbon footprint coming from
117:23 United States dramatically dropped over like a year period. And, of
117:28 with less things being burned right now it's dropped off significantly as well.
117:36 , so I think what I'm trying point I'm trying to get across to
117:40 is that in spite of all of good intentions, this is not growing
117:48 enough in any shape or form to all of this demand for liquids because
118:02 this is predicted, this has already into consideration the contribution here from renewables
118:12 most of where these renewables go, , electric, solar and wind are
118:18 going into power generation. They are into power generation, and so is
118:24 , for the most part. So it or not, that's the way
118:34 ISS, and and the industry that in is going to need to continue
118:41 provide. These resource is for our to even survive, much less
118:51 Okay, so let's take another look just a little bit of detail,
118:56 I think it's interesting, because people realize this because almost no one looks
119:00 this kind of stuff but trying to CO two free and greener. What
119:06 we have? We have nuclear, a lot of people think is a
119:10 no. We have hydro electric. electric has two issues. One
119:18 um it creates really need places to skiing, boats, boating and skiing
119:23 fishing and stuff. But it is on the city's did it drowns so
119:28 can't keep building hydro electric plants. it also depends on a lot of
119:34 electric generation throughout the world depends on and rainfall, and there have been
119:43 issues there. Ah, geothermal is of untapped, but it's very expensive
119:50 what I understand. Uh, we're gonna look a couple of charts
119:58 . I'll point out there was a when, uh, the wind in
120:02 was was so low in general overall a whole year that I think
120:09 there, ah, kept their Their actual production that was consumed.
120:14 amount of electricity they were able to was like 10% of their capacity.
120:19 that was a really bad year for and then then solar. If you
120:25 lots of cloud cover, that's gonna a problem. Of course, with
120:29 change, um, we probably will more cloud cover, and, uh
120:36 that could be an issue there. , of course, night night,
120:40 we can't get rid off and nuclear . We're all still frightened of it
120:49 we can have catastrophic problems with nuclear , and, uh, we don't
120:55 many of them. But when we them, they're bad, and we
120:59 have an issue with disposal of the . And I like to show this
121:05 you guys because 2019 is the last can get it. This came out
121:09 early, 2020 and, ah, of people, for some reason.
121:16 think the United States is doing nothing , uh, for all of this
121:21 stuff. And does anybody want to which company owned the biggest solar
121:32 uh, manufacturing firm in the world 1978. Anybody know the answer to
121:46 question? We're going to take a . Excuse me For the northern gas
121:57 ? Yes, it Wasit was mobile . They sold it because they weren't
122:03 any money. At that point in . They probably wish they had it
122:07 . But But the the attitude that companies and Americans haven't been working on
122:17 is just flat out wrong on in witness that I'm going to show you
122:24 things. A lot of people think has always been the number one producer
122:30 nuclear energy because 100% of their power and that's just power generation. Not
122:35 of their energy, you know, say Francis 100% nuclear. That's their
122:41 generation. Remember, from this there's power generation, folks. This
122:46 everything else we need liquids for. . Okay. So and then China
122:56 not really that that large. But can see here that the U.
123:03 . Um, I'm trying to think when this this was over a few
123:10 the US has gone up plus I think this is over. The
123:15 year we've gone up 4.1 terawatt which is 1, 277.78 eights of
123:26 an exit. Jewell eso We're the producer nuclear power, which surprises a
123:33 of people. It's probably no surprise this. 10 years ago, China
123:38 have been nothing. You could look this just a year ago or two
123:41 ago. Um, they just added Terra Watts in the last five
123:47 I wish I don't remember what what cut off was. Now that I'm
123:51 this but might have been 2017, that's what it was. It was
123:58 2016. There it is. so in three years in three
124:04 the United States has gone up 4.1 hours. Francis dropped. China has
124:15 almost doubled what it had, and Russian Federation's grown a little bit.
124:21 Korea's dropped off, Um, and is about 10% of the world
124:30 And I put not capacities. Consumption what we're using. And that's not
124:36 wind and solar, which is advertised capacity. Okay, so here we
124:44 with solar panels. Uh, at point in time, the U.
124:48 . Was number one. Now we're number two since 2016. You can
124:55 that in gigawatts, which is not same thing as Terra Watts. It's
125:00 smaller than that. It's a lot than a terawatt. Uh,
125:06 uh China has gone up 74. dropped a little bit. Japan's pretty
125:12 stayed the same. And again for reasons. Solar people don't tell you
125:20 their production is because it doesn't sound impressive. What sounds impressive is the
125:26 and the capacity, um, is only a small part of Excuse
125:37 Production is only 30% at best of this capacity is, and overall,
125:43 provides 3% to total power generation. . You go back again to this
125:51 . There is power generation. It 3% of this bar right here.
125:58 percent okay. And I won't go to that again. I promise.
126:09 , then when you look at Uh, China is up to
126:15 That was gigawatts. This is gigawatts . This is capacity. It's not
126:22 . They're only producing a third of . They're only producing a third of
126:26 Onley producing a third of this. look at how small. That number
126:32 11.9 gigawatts compared to 204.7 gigawatts. 25% of this for the U.
126:45 . Is produced in Texas right here Texas. But again, this is
126:49 that little purple bar of power generation it's making a contribution to in the
126:55 States. Okay, um, and I put put this out here,
127:02 . But this is also true for . Okay, And your geothermal?
127:09 had some different diagrams to you, I thought I would show that here's
127:14 . For that, you can see United States was the biggest then in
127:18 United States is the biggest now. , uh, and by a long
127:23 , and the Philippines have have started drop off a little bit. They've
127:31 from that time. But Indonesia, , has actually jumped ahead of them
127:38 , uh, in power generation for 2019. So I don't know if
127:50 have to keep reiterating this, but , as much energy is, everyone
127:55 the world is putting into this. applaud it. Please doom.
128:00 um, does it mean the end the oil industry? If I look
128:05 this chart, I don't know And maybe one of my questions for
128:11 for this report is for you to me how. How is this much
128:20 ? If this was replaced 100% and it's not by renewables. How is
128:33 going to get rid of all of liquid production demand? Okay, maybe
128:44 I'm being Ah, I know it from looking at the data. It
128:49 to me that there's a miss connect the threat of alternates to the oil
128:56 and all. I'm gonna help Go , sir, to interrupt just the
129:00 . Why is the big gap between capacity and the production and the wind
129:04 solar okay, that's real simple. wind, uh, for it to
129:10 full capacity. The winds have to about 25 knots all the time and
129:18 a little bit less than that. I believe it's, you know,
129:20 some, you know, pretty Pretty good wind. It might be
129:24 15, but it's some fixed Uh huh. They working at
129:30 If it gets over a certain wind , I think they they change the
129:35 of the blades feathered out so they you know, they don't destroy the
129:39 and but but up, but the has to blow it a certain velocity
129:47 the time for them to get 100% . So that's the case for for
129:53 energy. And, um, one the things that happened in Europe and
130:00 think it was 2017 and we haven't the slide yet, but but the
130:05 energy was off that year because they have a lot of wind in the
130:12 . Okay? And I guess people drinking a lot of beer and eating
130:19 lot of beans that you're something but wind was down. Okay, so
130:23 that had a really negative impact on . Then we look at the solar
130:30 you have this much capacity, depends on where you are relative to
130:39 amount of sunlight you have over the of the whole year, you're obviously
130:44 to get more solar energy, in, um, in places close
130:51 the equator than places farther away from equator. But night and day,
130:58 you cut it, it 50 Uh, you're gonna lose half of
131:02 capacity just a night and day. you're gonna lose capacity, do thio
131:09 storms, clouds and other things like . And so the most that they
131:14 can produce is 30%. And uh there's also a certain number of
131:24 things that actually, uh, cause to have to shut these things down
131:28 now and then, which I know about. So I'm not going to
131:31 to explain that. But I know has something to do with it as
131:35 . I just looked up that wind blades lost 10 to 20 years,
131:39 they're made out of carbon fiber, it kind of seems kind of counter
131:45 , okay? And they also cost lot of money on, uh,
131:50 the first wave of windmills that went in the United States. And it
131:54 it was a really good thing to to see if if we could get
131:57 upscale, but it's still it's still scalable to what we need for our
132:03 energy needs. One advantage that we with power generation is that, um
132:09 you do have an electrical car, amount of waste of energy in an
132:15 car is less than the amount of energy when you're burning fuel. So
132:20 overall like if everything was electric. , if we go back to
132:27 if everything was electric, like all these, uh, I don't know
132:34 we're gonna do ships trained. I know how we're gonna do a plane's
132:36 , but if we could, this be a little bit thinner on,
132:41 it would all have to go into generation. But we're still, you
132:45 , we're still way way off of the power generation. We need to
132:50 these cars and these trucks and these , trains and planes. We can't
132:57 plastics because they're gonna be more valuable us then than anything else,
133:02 and some of the industrial needs, know, in the running buildings,
133:08 I think buildings is primarily diesel generators in and you know you get if
133:18 if you have storms or earthquakes or like that, it can disrupt even
133:23 generators. But But sometimes they're the thing that we have to back
133:28 All these other power sources of power get crashed down. For example,
133:33 if there's a disaster, a hurricane at the University of Houston right
133:39 every building on campus has a power up its diesel. And and they
133:46 that when Alison came in back in , and one. I believe
133:49 Waas or maybe 2002. Okay, it's hard to get charts like
134:00 and it's hard to get them. was the last one that I
134:04 uh, that I could actually trust numbers because people ah, try to
134:11 too much to the to the hydrocarbon and take too much too much of
134:16 cost out of the other ones because put the subsidized costs and stuff like
134:20 in it. But, uh, terms of producing Mila Watts per
134:26 this is what the numbers were I think these numbers are a lot
134:30 now, but these numbers are a lower, too, over across the
134:36 , but in general and one of cheapest things. And it has half
134:44 carbon footprint of the other liquids that's gas. And so, without trying
134:53 defend all of these numbers, which they probably all need a little bit
134:58 defense. But I think this is bargain basement thing to get energy to
135:05 world with the smallest carbon footprint. that's something we can do overnight if
135:10 wanted Thio. Uh, and not exactly overnight, but we could
135:16 it a lot quicker than than turning car into, um, a battery
135:22 car in truck to that's that's going taken awful lot of investment in
135:29 Aziz, much as we want I mean, if that's all we
135:32 , um, it's still going to a long time to get there.
135:38 this is another thing. And this this is just sources for power
135:46 which again is just that little purple in the overall need for ah,
135:52 liquids. Excuse me. And then What we see here is that when
136:06 look at hydro electric Ah, that's be one of the cheapest things as
136:12 as we have rain. And then marine title things reason we haven't built
136:18 for hydro electric is because they're very and they actually do disrupt the environment
136:23 lot. And here's solar energy which is concentrated solar power. And
136:32 is the photo photovoltaics. The cost that and this is kind of like
136:39 up water with sunlight. Or one you can do this is you could
136:44 lenses and you can concentrate the energy water and make a steam engine that
136:51 , and these were the other So in summary, uh, I'd
137:00 to say that population growth is becoming single most critical issue in terms of
137:08 . And, uh, I do that as the world gets more
137:12 we will we will, uh, control our population little better. That
137:19 happened in China, and also, have been saying this since I was
137:24 high school, and and the population more than doubled since then. And
137:34 , you know, waken hope these happen. But I think if we
137:38 address the biggest issue, I think definitely making a risky mistake's,
137:46 energy demand is still growing, and population goes up, it will continue
137:50 grow. There's no way to stop . The only thing we can do
137:56 changed the sources. So I think need to, as individuals support anything
138:03 helps alternate sources that are carbon free at the same time, realized the
138:13 the significant amount of energy required. , on this planet is going to
138:21 that that we keep producing liquid energy to support the growth of our population
138:30 the GPS of all these different companies countries that we have across the
138:38 Uh, and another thing to think is that even even as we go
138:46 mawr carbon free wind and solar type , uh, you know they need
138:54 , so they're always going to need kind of hydrocarbon backup, whether it's
138:59 or whether it's natural gas or something that. But most of the backup
139:05 diesel power and or, uh, generation from natural gas power plants.
139:15 another issue that's really important is, know, in terms of the carbon
139:20 , which a lot of people have . But I can tell you from
139:26 search just last night that since last it's changed a lot. There's more
139:32 , uh, this issue in terms , uh, the carbon footprint coming
139:38 of agriculture. And when I use word here, I have to be
139:45 using this distributed word, which is I put it in red. Sometimes
139:50 talk about distributed, uh, Is everybody having a garden in their
139:58 ? Uh, and even if you a place like New York City and
140:02 have people with little verandas, they have tomato plants growing on their
140:09 And, of course, those produced two to, but the amount of
140:14 involved there is probably near zero. that's what some people talk about distributed
140:21 sources. But the way when I the word in this sentence, I
140:25 that, Aziz, we have larger larger urban areas. We're gonna have
140:31 have mawr and mawr of these, , farms that are very large that
140:39 to produce massive amounts of and produce massive amounts of presumably meets and,
140:52 , and also get that to the . There's gonna be a lot more
140:57 . The more you have to Uh, when you have to build
141:02 things. There's efficiency in terms of . But there is, ah,
141:07 of efficiency, apparently in terms And I didn't make this up.
141:12 is what I read in terms off the the the food to the source
141:19 then the source to the restaurants and the restaurants actually into your mouth.
141:24 of the things people are doing these , which I think have been extremely
141:28 , is they've been, uh, , you know, food banks that
141:35 food from restaurants before it goes thio dates and actually donated it to people
141:41 needed. I think things like that help this a lot, but for
141:45 , distributed food sources is large farms from the city that have to transport
141:51 to the city, which, by way, takes more hydrocarbons the way
141:55 power situation is at this point in to get it to the cities and
142:01 the people. So that's it. like I said, I'm going to
142:08 you a, um, see, I can close this thing. I
142:16 I am. I got a question you, But I emailed you three
142:22 . I can either share my screen you may be able to pull them
142:25 , but I got him from the conference last week. I think they're
142:30 they're really value bombing. There is exactly what we're talking about. E
142:37 can show if you want, But don't you? Why don't you go
142:40 and show him? I don't e Maria can let you take control of
142:45 screen? Let's see. Yep. we go. You guys got
142:55 He's it. Okay, so this so there was three grabs that they
143:01 And this one waas, um geoscience areas through 2050. And it was
143:08 because, like, as you go your lecture, I think I think
143:12 right. We're more and more people the emergence of renewables as like replacing
143:17 all these hydrocarbon resources. But the is that that's not gonna happen for
143:22 long time. And even when that happen, like you're saying or were
143:26 , it's not happen at the rate other people think it could happen.
143:29 , like, really, what they're to highlight is like the different alternative
143:33 routes for geoscience skills through 2050. how, um, hydrocarbon still play
143:38 huge role in the skill set through that time period for the next 30
143:43 . And then this was another one had employment for juice scientists is
143:47 So, um, predicts shortage, a job shortage of 35 full time
143:52 by 2028. And, um, 01 of the biggest fields is the
143:56 , but you still need geoscientists. then I don't think they have any
144:00 petroleum specifically, but because s so think that's kind of like where they
144:04 that up into. But here's Here's geological and petroleum technicians. Where
144:09 you see that? Right here. there. Oh, yeah, I'm
144:16 . Oh, yeah, There it . There it is. So they're
144:18 5% of the full time that Um, so they're essentially saying it's
144:24 going anywhere. Um, and then other one, they had this
144:29 It was just saying, and I've the full picture. I can send
144:32 the actual like professor. Whoever wrote up? I saw it just I
144:36 screamed, shouted it while they were their presentation. But this is the
144:40 of skill sets the skill sets like all the skills that were getting
144:44 this program. And while why are is this carbon capture? Is that
144:47 that is? Yeah, that's carbon , utilization and storage or utilization and
144:53 . So, like finding containment and then this is, like,
144:58 relevant for me because I literally just a job today with a carbon capture
145:06 company. And, uh, it's crazy. This is crazy that
145:10 giving this lecture. So and so is kind of what the skill sets
145:14 they had. And And, you , this is what the people you
145:18 talking about, and it's exactly it with what you just Yeah, they
145:23 up saying there's gonna be a right? Yeah. Exactly what they're
145:26 is, if you could hold if we can all just hold onto
145:30 whatever we have for the next couple years, we're gonna be all
145:32 The last time, the last time oil industry was in this kind of
145:38 , uh, was was not 2000 2009. It was about 1999
145:44 uh, everybody stop doing everything. then in, uh, 2000 and
145:53 , ExxonMobil did something just like this said, This is we're going to
146:01 this many masters graduates just for our . And they listed a big number
146:09 a lot of people, you naturally we're gonna be retiring. And
146:14 that number was mawr than, all of the graduate students put together
146:22 just the United States. Not across world, of course, but just
146:26 United States. Of course, the States might have had 30% of that
146:31 , or 20% of that output. but And that's what's gonna happen this
146:37 . And, um, a lot I don't know what it is about
146:42 in this program, but But a lot of the alumni that
146:49 You guys have been doing very And some of them have even
146:54 Fellas even started up his own glass , I think, near Texarkana.
147:01 wish I could remember his name right just just escapes me. But he's
147:05 . He got a bunch of entrepreneurial and he's produced this high quality glass
147:11 that apparently is hard to get your on on. There's a big demand
147:16 it. And he just switched from oil and gas and went into that
147:20 , uh, but I think it , it kind of underscores the type
147:25 people to get into this program. really, uh your you're not here
147:29 mom and Dad told you to go school. You're here because you really
147:34 learn and you want to be And And my guess is that you're
147:40 be successful, So just keep up good work. And they really like
147:45 way they really like the carbon like a startup. And they really
147:49 the the program, like, you , of course, because,
147:52 I don't have an MBA, and don't have ah, you know,
147:57 Yeah, Djelic or the C f . But geologists are. I told
148:00 in the interview, I said geologists value creators and risk mitigators so,
148:06 , that's exactly what other people other professionals are doing right now.
148:09 but I don't know if it's gonna this way, but I think a
148:13 of lot of your reservoir skills, going toe come into play at some
148:18 in time, It's just gonna be stuff in instead of taking it
148:24 E I thought I'd share that. thought that was and I'll share those
148:28 with you. I think I emailed Thio emailed you the slots. But
148:34 , co two floods are a good to get rid of it too.
148:40 , well, with that, I'm let you guys, I guess we've
148:42 of gone over. And, since tomorrow's our first Saturday, let's
148:48 it 8. 45 instead of 30. Uh, just give me
148:57 extra minutes. I've got I've got these cranky joints and it takes me
149:02 least an extra 10 minutes to make move. Okay. And anyway,
149:08 see you guys tomorrow. Thank Thank you. It's by the
149:14 It is fantastic to see all of again. I really miss all of
149:20 . Do you have? Do you , like, five minutes after class
149:23 talk real quick? Capstan? Could you give me a call on
149:27 get me to call you on the number you gave me? Yeah,
149:32 do that. E think It's gonna a specific capstone. But if you
149:42 a Daniel Daniel, we can have separate phone call. Okay?
149:49 And send me an email and we set up a time tomorrow or not
149:52 . But maybe Monday. Yeah. . Okay. We'll see you
149:58 E I have to stop the
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